Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

For Sunday, large human triggered avalanches will be possible. Rising temperatures and rain will create hazardous conditions near and below treeline on all aspects. If you see signs of instability such as recent avalanches, roller balls and wet/slushy snow, move to lower angle terrain. If you happen to travel to the alpine, large wind slabs will also be possible primarily on north, east and southeast aspects. If you see any signs of instabilities (snow drifts, cracking or recent avalanches) stick to slopes below 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering a wet loose avalanche will be likely on Sunday due to rising temperatures and expected rain fall. As the temperature rises and rain increases, the avalanche hazard wil also increase. Look for clues of wet loose activity such as roller balls, wet/slushy snow and/or recent avalanches. If you start to see these signs, move to slopes less than 30 degrees.

    I suspect most of the avalanches will be on the smaller side. However, larger slides (big enough to bury, injur or kill a rider) can occur. Wet loose avalanches will be more likely on steep slopes. They are caused by the snow surface losing cohesion due to a rise in temperature. These avalanches often start directly below a rider and fan out, entraining more snow. These avalanches (even small ones) can be deceptively powerful. Use caution in steep terrain and especially around terrain traps (gulleys, creeks, cliffs, trees). 

    I don't suspect wet slab avalanches due to our forecasted precipitation amount. However it is still a good idea to dig into the snow and see how saturated the snowpack is becoming. If you start to find pooling of water (especially on top of the ice crust down 12"), move to lower angle terrain. Wet loose and wet slabs can occur at the same time. 

    This is an example of several large wet loose avalanches from a previous season.

    Photo: Elliott Reed

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs will also be possible near and above treeline on northerly, easterly and southeasterly slopes. On Saturday I observed consistent wind loading in the alpine on easterly aspects. Also, the snow level will rise throughout the day to 8,000ft. If you happen to travel to these elevations, look for clues of wind slabs including wind drifted snow, textured surface and cracking. If you do head to higher eleveations, ease into terrain and use safe indicator slopes to assess the conditions. 

Avalanche Discussion

We currently have about 12-15" of unconsolidated snow from recent storms sitting on a stout rain crust. We are still experiencing "low tide" conditions specially below tree line. Use caution as there are a lot of logs and rocks still exposed in our forecast zone.

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