Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We could see up to a foot of snow at mid and upper elevations overnight, and avalanche danger will increase to Considerable for Monday. Avoid traveling on steep slopes where 6-8" or more of new snow exists. New snow will be moist around the freezing line elevation, or if the sun comes out, and you may subsequently see small wet avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Avalanche danger will increase for Monday as around a foot of snow is expected to fall at mid and upper elevations Sunday night. There is uncertainty regarding how much avalanche activity will result, but when in doubt, avoid slopes steeper than 35° in areas where you find more than 6-8" of snow over the Solstice Crust to give the new storm snow some time to settle. Avalanche danger will be highest in the morning, as the storm is coming to a close. 

    Investigate bonding between this new snow layer and the previous day's few inches of snow over the Solstice Crust. Also check how well snow is sticking to the obvious Solstice Crust layer, which will likely be about 1ft or so below the new snow surface in non wind-affected, upper elevation areas. If snow slides easily at any of these interfaces, avoid steep slopes. If you find wind drifted snow in steeper terrain, there's a higher likelihood that you could trigger an avalanche in those locations. 

    Example photo: This slab avalanche failed in the new snow layer, spanning the width of this steep rollover, a likely location for an avalanche to fail. This is similar to what you might be able to trigger on Monday. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Freezing lines will hover in the 4000-4500ft range on Monday. Around these elevations, we may get wet, heavy snow and resulting wet loose avalanches. If you see rollerballs or snow fanning out and sliding down, avoid traveling beneath these slopes. If you're triggering rollerballs or small avalanches as you travel on steep slopes, be sure to avoid getting caught by staying above them and planning your travel to avoid them. We're not sure how much new damp snow there might be, but there may be several inches and avalanches could pick up quite a bit of mass and potentially slide easily on the underlying solstice crust. 

    If the sun comes out, wet loose avalanches could quickly initiate on steep slopes facing into the sun. Pay attention to sky cover and subsequent avalanche activity. If you encounter these conditions, avoid traveling on or beneath steep slopes in the area. 

    (2/12/2024)

    Example photo: Wet loose slides that were easy to trigger on steep slopes. These ran with a punch on crusts. This is similar to what you might encounter on Monday. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

I traveled in the Hwy 2 corridor of the West Central zone on Sunday (OBSERVATION) and found soft snow surfaces up to 3500ft and varying levels of crust above that elevation. By 4500ft the crust, which we're now calling the Solstice Crust, was supportable on skis but not quite on foot. In general, travel on the variable crust was a challenge.  Aside from increased avalanche danger, your largest hazard on Monday will be unintentionally finding glide cracks, avalanche debris, partially exposed creeks, and other features hidden beneath the new snow. 

We received about 3 inches of predominantly rain since Tuesday, and many wet slab and glide avalanches likely resulted. Most wet avalanche activity is behind us. We hope that temperature trends will keep cooler for a while and the old wet snow will start freezing up. With this, we generally feel that the snowpack beneath the Solstice Crust has locked up and our avalanche concerns are limited to above the Solstice Crust, for now. 

We've got a steady stream of incoming storms welcoming us in on this holiday week, so make sure to stay on your toes when traveling in the backcountry. If you make it out, please help us and share what you saw by SUBMITTING AN OBSERVATION.

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