Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger avalanches in areas where recent winds drifted snow into stiffer slabs. Confined alpine features and steep slopes below ridgelines are likely places for this lingering problem. Consider steering around these features and approach complex, wind-exposed terrain slowly and conservatively. Cracks shooting from your equipment or recent avalanches are signs to choose lower-angle slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    While winds and precipitation will take a break on Tuesday, lingering wind slabs could still be reactive. Visual clues, such as cornice formations, textured surfaces, or cracking in stiff surface snow layers, can help identify wind-loaded terrain.  Consider steering around steep slopes where you identify these wind slab features. Other ways to avoid triggering avalanches are to avoid typical trigger points, such as convex features, unsupported slopes, and confined gullies.

    A few larger slabs from the past week could still lurk in alpine terrain. On Sunday, a widely propagating avalanche occurred overnight in the Icicle Creek area on an NNE aspect at 7200ft. It will be tough to say exactly where these harder slabs might exist but don't rule them out, especially below large, well-developed cornice lines. 

    (12/30/2024)

    This widely propagating avalanche in the Icicle Creek Drainage occurred overnight from December 29-30th. Keep this in mind if you step out into alpine terrain on Tuesday. SS-N-D2.5-R3

Avalanche Discussion

Expect clearing skies and a chilly night in the zone, with the chance of some sun on Tuesday. The cold temperatures will likely limit any wet loose avalanches from sun-induced warming, but watch those steep rock faces for isolated rollerballs. More importantly, another storm is scheduled to arrive by Tuesday night, and the brief, clear, cold weather could weaken surfaces or develop a surface hoar layer. So, look closely at Monday's snow surface, as it might be Tuesday's weak layer. 

Coming out of such a stormy period, we have a healthy dose of uncertainty about the snowpack, particularly higher in the terrain. While we think avalanche activity will be relegated to wind-loaded slopes, we can’t rule out a slide breaking on an interstorm layer or even down to the Solstice Crust. The very large avalanche in Icicle Creek mentioned above shouldn't be ignored, so consider the consequences of a much larger avalanche before steeping out into complex terrain.  

On Sunday, avalanche professionals in the Icicle drainage found recent wind slabs at middle and upper elevations under a bit of fresh snow. These firmer pockets still produced cracks when tested. They also noted evidence of natural cornice collapses and large cornice-triggered wind slabs, mostly from Saturday's warm, wet weather. At lower elevations (5000ft near the crest, 4500ft further east), rain and warm temperatures significantly impacted the snowpack. This also resulted in at least one large natural wet avalanche near Teanaway Mt (see pictures).

Cooling temperatures will help limit the danger at lower elevations as all this wet snow forms a new crust. In the meantime, you could encounter variable conditions, including breakable crusts, wet, punchy snow, and firm, slick surfaces. 

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