Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect up to 3-5 inches of new snow and winds on the western edge of the zone. You may be able to trigger avalanches where the wind drifts snow at upper elevations. Avalanches may be easier to trigger on northern and eastern aspects, where slabs formed over weak snow grains. Travel cautiously and make observations before committing to steep terrain in wind-affected areas. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds will continue to distribute snow to lee aspects, forming fresh, shallow slabs. Use visual clues such as cornice formations and surface texture to identify wind-affected terrain. Look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks, collapsing, or recent avalanche activity. The best way to avoid being surprised by one of these avalanches is to stick to wind-sheltered areas or lower angle slopes. On northerly aspects at higher elevations, older slabs formed over faceted snow (March 8th) and may be more sensitive to triggering. You can dig to look for weak snow resting on a crust about 1-1.5 feet below the surface. If the snow easily slides on the crust or if you experience signs of instability stick to lower angle and wind-sheltered slopes. 

    (3/16/2022)

    Wind slab in high elevation terrain in the Icicle Creek drainage.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

For most of the eastern slopes of the Cascades, it will be cloudy with light snow and moderate winds. Some precipitation may spill over to the east slopes near the Cascade crest. While we haven't experienced many big storms recently, a trickle in pattern has continuously brought smaller amounts of snow to the western portion of the East Central zone. By Sunday, there may be nearly 2 ft of snow overlying weak faceted snow at upper elevations on northern and eastern aspects.

The March 8th facets, often resting on a crust, could be a concern for avalanches near and above treeline, especially on shaded, northerly aspects. Observations from upper elevations are limited, but the sensitivity of this layer may vary significantly throughout the terrain. On Saturday, observers in the Teanaway drainage reported large collapses. Forecaster, Matt Primomo, found March 8th facets buried about 12 inches deep in the Icicle Creek at around 6700ft. He also found them in the White Pine drainage above 5,500ft. Observers in the Chiwaukum range consistently found the weak layer above 5,000ft and reported significant wind loading on Saturday. On Friday, observers in the Icicle drainage tested northeast leeward slopes near treeline with cornice cuts resulting in no results on the March 8th facets. 

The avalanche danger will vary significantly through the zone with aspect, elevation, and distance from the Cascade crest. Keep this variability in mind as you travel and monitor the new snow depth over the Early March Crust. If you find more than 8 inches of snow over the crust, it will be worth digging down to identify any weak snow layers. Various challenging surface conditions exist at lower elevations, such as shallowly buried avalanche debris and thin snow cover. Unfortunately, the warm temperatures associated with the storm kept new snow accumulations minimal at elevations below 4500ft, and lower elevations conditions did not improve significantly. A widespread avalanche cycle occurred throughout the Cascades on the 28th-March 1st and left plenty of large piles of debris to navigate.

Regions covered