Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers that are 2 to 4 feet down in the snowpack.  The most likely place you'll find this strong over weak poor snowpack structure is on northerly and east aspects. Although the likelihood of triggering one of these large avalanches is decreasing as we push further away from the last loading event, the consequences remain incredibly high if you do. Warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks most like will not be present. Steer clear of slopes over 35 degrees on northerly and east aspects, avoiding likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops as these are places you are more likely to impact deeper weak layers.  

Winds have been increasing overnight in the 25 to 40 mph range with gusts in the 50's out of the SW.  Moderate to strong winds will stick with us today ahead of the next approaching system that looks to take more of the southerly track.  We should still pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow Monday accompanied by moderate to strong shifting winds and potentially a rumble of thunder.  So it'll feel very much like a springtime storm for us here.  Expect to see avalanche conditions increase Monday into Tuesday with this incoming storm.   

The persistent slab problem continues to linger with the bulls-eye being on northerly and east aspects.  Although natural avalanche activity has subsided in the last week, and as we push further away from the last significant loading event, it's becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche, the consequences are incredibly high you do.  The very large natural avalanche on the backside of Kachina Peak last Saturday that was 3 to 5 feet deep and about 800' wide show's what an avalanche might look like if you were to trigger one.  This persistent slab problem is similar to what other areas in Utah and CO are dealing with as we all went through a prolonged dry period in January and February that lead to widespread facet development and is now buried by slabs from storms at the end of Feb/March. Since March 17th there have been three avalanche fatalities with two occurring in Colorado, one near Telluride and another near Steamboat Springs yesterday. Our condolences go out to the family and everyone that was involved in these accidents.  You can read the preliminary reports here.

These January/February facet layers are buried beneath an obvious dust layer in the snowpack from the 2/22 wind event, so if you're going to dig a pit to assess a slope you'll have to dig down beneath that. These weak layers have been showing signs of healing and strengthening and stability tests are producing hard results with full propagation.  In many pits, I'm finding these layers 110 to 150cm down from the surface and it will most likely take finding the sweet spot where the overlying slab is thinner and you're more likely to impact these layers. In Santa Fe, an observation found this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak in an overall shallower snowpack (110cm on NW aspect below treeline) where depth hoar lingers on the ground and is capped by denser slabs.  Time is our friend when it comes to faceted weak layers healing and strengthening, but this process doesn't happen quickly.  We're trending in the right direction, but we're not there yet.     

In recent travels, variable conditions existed prior to this last little storm across elevations and aspects, with crusts forming on the surface on solar aspects from warm temperatures and our intense sun this time of year.  Not a problem currently but I am observing near-surface facets forming around these crusts that could become our next problematic layer once we introduce a cohesive slab above it. Strong winds last night most likely battered upper elevations creating stiff firm wind pressed surfaces.