Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The potential for wind slabs increases as you ascend in elevation. Use visual clues to help identify wind-loaded features to avoid. Uncertainty around deeper layers of concern should have you communicating openly with your group about your acceptable level of risk and terrain choices. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Wednesday, the most likely location to trigger a slab avalanche will be in wind-loaded terrain. Convex features, the sides of gullies, or rocky chutes are all popular locations for wind slabs to develop. You may notice visual clues such as fresh drifts, sharp lips\cornices, or textured surfaces to help indicate that the wind was transporting snow recently. Shooting cracks or actively blowing snow are "red flag" warnings that wind slab avalanches are possible. If you suspect that a slope is wind-loaded, choose an alternate route.

    (1/26/2024)

    Wind-sculpted features at upper elevations in the Blue Lake basin.

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Snow has slowly been trickling into the East North zone, increasing depth over the Early February Crust. On the ground observations are limited, but weather station data indicates we have roughly a foot of snow over the crust at upper elevations. We could squeeze out another inch Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally light winds.

On Wednesday, focus your observations and snowpack assessment on this week's snow. Check the underlying bond to the Early February Crust and for slab character. With an excellent sliding surface in place, you might have to manage small sluffs in wind-sheltered terrain.  If we get significant sun breaks, add rollerballs and small wet loose activity to the list of hazards to avoid on steep, sun-exposed slopes. It will likely take a few good storms to bring lower elevations back into the threshold for consequential avalanches.

Our recent atmospheric river event (1/27-2/1) resulted in a widespread wet avalanche cycle within the zone. Many of these avalanches are suspected of failing on old, weak layers in the snowpack. We currently believe that these layers were partially flushed and are now sufficiently bridged by the Early February Crust. That doesn't mean they can't wake back up in the future. If you have the time, it's worth digging a little deeper and looking at the early January facets and the December facet/crust to see how they faired during the AR event. Talk with your partners about your acceptable level of risk, and consider keeping a wide buffer of terrain between your group and steep, unsupported features until more information can be gathered.

We are still interested in cataloging avalanches that occurred due to the AR. If you come across large debris piles or crowns, please send us a photo and tell us where you found them. 

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