Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. A foot of new snow overnight, 2-3 more feet expected in the next 24 hours, and strong southerly winds will create widespread avalanche problems across the forecast area. Natural avalanches are likely, and human-triggered avalanches are very likely. Stay off of, and out from underneath, slopes greater than 30 degrees.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3.5

    The wind slab hazard is very real today. Prior to this storm system, wind loaded slopes had already proven reactive. The additional accumulation of 3–4 feet of new and wind transported snow will overload the snowpack today and tonight. Expect these slabs to be touchy or reactive to trigger, and run far distances into lower angle terrain. This problem will be found on W-NW-N-NE aspects, with cross loading possible on east aspects. These slabs could break up to 5 feet deep, and certainly bury and/or kill you. Avoid all leeward aspects today, giving convexities and aspect changes a safe distance. Need to double-check what aspect you're on? I often use the compass app on my phone, or carry a physical compass with me.

    (1/15/2024)

    Sun Bowl Avalanche Debris. Slab the size of refrigerators  

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Storm slab avalanches will be widespread over the next 24 hours. The forecast area has picked up ~12 inches of snow overnight, and 29–40 inches of additional snow is expected by tomorrow morning. This amount of weight will surely destabilize the snowpack. These slabs could fail as deep as the new snow (up to 3 feet deep) and break hundreds of feet wide. Don't underestimate this problem. If caught in an avalanche, it will likely be big enough to bury and/or kill you. Travel in any avalanche terrain is not recommended. Give avalanche paths a wide berth, as natural avalanches will likely occur and may run far distances.

    Photo: Nick Meyers

Avalanche Discussion

A strong winter storm with atmospheric river contribution is hammering the forecast area. Heavy precipitation will continue for at least the next 24 hours, with 29–40 inches expected to fall at treeline. A NWS Winter Storm Warning is in effect through Tuesday night, for areas above 5,000 feet. Most weather stations have recorded around a foot of new snow, with a bit more showing at Eddy and Castle weather stations. It is a dangerous day to be in the backcountry, don't push it out there. Expect the blowing snow to produce poor visibility. If you plan to go out today, use safe travel techniques and have a back-up plan. Use a slope shade map to double-check that where you're going is not avalanche terrain. 

24-hour storm totals (inches):Old Ski Bowl (7,600 feet): 11      - Total snow depth: 150Sand Flat (6,800 feet): 9     - Total snow depth:  102Castle (5,800 feet): 12       - Total snow depth: 95Eddy (6,600 feet): 13       - Total snow depth: 116

Yesterday, forecasters assessed the south side of Mount Shasta, and the Parks Creek area. On the south side, 9–12 inches of new snow was found below and near treeline, with light wind effect, and few signs of instability. Check out the observation HERE. In the Parks Creek area, instability was more pronounced. The continued wind produced widespread blowing snow, and touchy wind slabs on test slopes. 

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