Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches remain likely today on steep slopes where slabs of wind-blown snow have piled up and possible where heavy storm snow exists on top of lighter snow in sheltered areas. Watch for any signs of unstable snow, like recent avalanches, cornices above a slope, cracking in the snow, or feeling heavy snow on top of lighter snow. You can reduce your chances of getting caught and still enjoy the new snow by traveling on slopes not steep enough for snow to slide down.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Heavy snow and gale-force winds have left dense slabs of wind-blown snow on the leeward sides of ridges, in gullies, and on many open slopes. The wind may remain strong enough to blow more snow onto these slopes today. People traveling on steep wind-loaded slopes will likely trigger avalanches today. These avalanches could easily entrain enough snow to bury or injure a person. The largest and most fragile wind slabs will exist in near and above treeline terrain where more efficient wind-loading occurs, but a few wind slabs may also lurk in open wind-exposed areas below treeline. Large, fragile cornices will also loom above many wind-loaded slopes.

    Cornices above a slope, blowing snow, and wind-created surface textures can all help identify which slopes may hold wind slabs. Recent avalanches and cracking in the snow represent sure signs that those wind slabs remain unstable. Unfortunately, dense wind slabs sometimes don't show their cards until someone gets onto a slope and triggers an avalanche. Give wind-loaded areas time to settle by making travel plans that steer clear of wind-loaded slopes. As a bonus, avoiding the wind-loaded terrain will lead you towards more consistent, less wind-affected snow.

    (2/18/2024)

    Stiff wind slabs like this one could exist in wind-loaded areas today. This dense wind slab did not crack until we stepped out onto this NE-facing 32° slope slope. The cracks propagated across and down the slope.

    Photo: Sierra Avalanche Center

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Changing conditions during the storm have left heavier snow on top of lighter snow in many areas. Storm slab avalanches remain possible on steep slopes in sheltered terrain where this upside-down layering exists, especially on slopes with convex rollovers or on lightly wind-affected slopes. Storm slabs can lurk in terrain people typically consider safe. Like the wind slabs mentioned above, these avalanches could involve enough snow to bury people. Terrain traps like gullies, creek beds, and small open slopes with trees below them can magnify the consequences of getting caught.

    Recent avalanches, cracking in the snow, or feeling a dense layer of storm snow on top of a softer layer of snow can indicate potential storm slab instability. If you see any signs of unstable snow, go ahead and stick to less steep slopes.

    (2/19/2024)

    Intentional skier triggered D1 avalanche in lightly wind loaded NE aspect, NTL terrain at 7,600'. Crown depth of about 18 inches. Andesite Ridge, Donner Summit area, CA

    Photo: Sierra Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

While this storm did not produce as much load as it could have, some concern lingers about an isolated deep persistent slab avalanche immediately after this storm cycle. If a one-off deep slab avalanche does occur, it would happen somewhere on the eastern side of the forecast area on a NW-N-NE aspect above about 8500 ft. Some of those slopes still hold weak snow in the bottom two to three feet of the snowpack. If a deep, persistent slab avalanche occurs, it could be very large, long-running, and destructive.

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