Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large, dangerous avalanche is a real possibility. You may or may not see or hear warning signs before triggering a thick, wide slide. These slides can be triggered from gentle terrain above, below, or to the sides of steep slopes. You could trigger smaller avalanches involving today's snowfall. These are most likely in the late afternoon and in the southern half of this zone, where snow totals are greatest. Freshly forming drifts will be thicker and more dangerous in areas affected by the wind. Wet avalanches are possible anywhere it's raining or when you find a wet, soggy snowpack.

The danger will increase as the storm continues overnight. AVALANCHE WARNINGS may be issued by tomorrow morning.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Expect to find 1-2.5 foot thick slabs in areas sheltered from the wind. The slab may be twice as thick in terrain affected by the wind. These avalanches have failed on various weak layers: facets and/or surface hoar on shadier aspects and crust + facet combinations on sunnier slopes. Large natural and human-triggered avalanches have occurred on several aspects in recent weeks. Assume this problem exists on all upper and middle elevation slopes and on shadier, lower elevation aspects.

    Avalanches on this uncommonly widespread and fragile layer will break widely and in surprising ways. Don't expect obvious signs of instability, like snowpack cracking and collapsing. Your first sign of trouble may be the destructive avalanche you trigger. These slides can be triggered from long distances away—from flat or gentle terrain below, above, or to the sides of steep slopes.

    (1/19/2024) This photo shows several large avalanches that were remotely-triggered by riders in the Beaver Creek drainage. The furthest away slide is over 800 feet wide, and failed a half mile from where the avalanches were triggered, out of sight on the right side of the photo.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Anticipate freshly forming, sensitive wind slabs this afternoon. Slabs will be thicker and more dangerous in areas that are affected by the wind but may also exist in more sheltered terrain as snow piles up this evening. Today's snowfall may not bond well to the mix of crusts, facets, and surface hoar where it's landing. Cracking is your first clue that the slab you've found is unstable. This problem is more likely at upper elevations in the southern Sawtooths and western Smokys, where snowfall is heaviest. 

Avalanche Discussion

Entering significant avalanche terrain remains a high-stakes roll of the dice. You may get away with it. If not, you'll trigger a thick, unsurvivable Persistent Slab avalanche that could span multiple terrain features. This outcome is a real possibility. Unfortunately, accurately assessing which slopes are still teetering on the edge is quite difficult.

Today's storm will bring a suite of new snow avalanche problems to the table while simultaneously adding stress and providing triggers for the Persistent Slab problem described above. Expect the danger to rise this afternoon and into tomorrow. Anticipate freshly forming slabs in areas exposed to the wind. Storm slabs may develop lower down, particularly if you're out late in the day. If you're traveling near or below about 7,500', expect to encounter a soggy snowpack capable of producing wet avalanches. 

Snow isn't a fan of rapid change, and we're facing just that. Give yourself multiple safe exit options and plan for worsening conditions. Choose conservative terrain today, and don't overcommit. 

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