Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It's becoming more difficult to trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche but not impossible.  Near and above treeline on wind-loaded slopes pose the greatest concern.  You're more likely to impact weak layers in likely trigger points where you find a shallower snowpack. These will be areas near rock outcroppings or on the margins of the slab.  Although the likelihood is lower, the consequences remain high if you were to trigger an avalanche as it could break 3 to 5 feet deep.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers near the ground and in the middle of the pack continue to remain a concern, especially in wind-loaded areas near and above treeline.  Triggering an avalanche has become harder as we push further away from the last significant loading event, but not impossible.  The consequences remain high if you do trigger a persistent slab avalanche as they would be large and may not be survivable. Signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapsing will most likely not be present and give you a false sense of security.   It may not be the first or second person on the slope, but just finding that "sweet spot" where the snowpack is shallower and you're more likely to impact deeper buried weak layers.  This would be near rock outcroppings and on the margins of the slab.  

    A shallower snowpack on No Name Peak. Although some slopes at upper elevations have snowpacks well over 2m, it's still possible to find areas that are shallower in our wind-driven snow climate.

    It's difficult to identify shallow areas, so using a probe pole can be great tool to identify how deep the slope you plan to play on is.   

     

    (2/12/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

Unfortunately, a fast-moving system is staying to our north and east and we'll have to wait a while longer for a refresh of snow as high pressure builds again through through Tuesday.  Temperatures over the past several days have remained fairly cold, which is helping preserve some nice powder on northerly aspects in wind-sheltered terrain.  The intense sun we have here at our southerly latitude has impacted our solar aspects and created crusts on the surface.  At upper elevations, recent moderate winds have created harder slabs, with still spots where you find chalky softer snow. Just below ridgelines, at the upper elevations, you may find isolated pockets of small wind slabs.  These would be small but could knock you off your feet and be problematic in steep consequential terrain. 

The snowpack in our region is starting to move in two different directions. Near and above treeline, depths are well over 150cm in many places. Depth hoar, the early January drought facet layer and faceted crusts that plagued us throughout the season are still there on many slopes and remain reactive in long-column PSTs.  It's all about snowpack depths right now as it's going to take you finding a shallower spot on the slope to potentially impact a weak layer.  In areas where the snowpack is > 2m, it would be very hard in our non-mechanized wilderness area to trigger an avalanche. However, if you find a shallow spot on the slope, the consequences would be incredibly high. Consider using your probe to get a sense for the variable snow depths in your zone before stepping out onto a steeper slope. The good news is that in these deeper areas, faceted layers are healing quicker and strengthening in our deeper snowpack.   

Below treeline and areas where the snowpack is < 1.5m deep, this healing process has been slower for the depth hoar and early January drought facet layer. Over the last couple of days, Charlie and I have found a mostly faceted snowpack that doesn't have a reactive slab on top.  This slab weakening is why we've dropped the avalanche danger to low below treeline.  Although the avalanche danger is low, that doesn't mean that avalanches can't happen.  In isolated terrain like steep open exposed slopes, you may find the right slab/weak layer combination to trigger an avalanche.       

It seems like more and more of us are stepping out into steeper terrain and finding good skiing and riding during this high-pressure period. Continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche.  While we wait for more snow, wind-sheltered northerly aspects continue to hold good snow.   

 

 

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