Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A beautiful weekend is coming up and it will be a lovely time to get out in the backcountry. However, backcountry riders need to be aware of a few sneaky avalanche problems on specific terrain features. Recent snow and wind have combined to create fresh wind slabs at near and above treeline elevations. For the most part, these slabs are small, but there is a low probability that they could step down into older snow layers which would lead to the triggered avalanche becoming large enough to bury you. This natural avalanche on East Beckwith started small, before pulling out a deeper slab mid-avalanche path. While in wind-sheltered terrain, primarily at lower elevations where you find loose unconsolidated snow, backcountry riders are still regularly triggering loose snow avalanches on steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The recent snow accumulations at the end of the week averaged around 2 to 6". This snow has been transported by southwest to northwest winds aloft and created small wind slabs near ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. This avalanche problem doesn't appear to be widespread across suspect terrain, as the low-density snow was simply blown away in some areas. The most sensitive drifts are expected to be encountered on the eastern half of the compass. Fresh cornice formation and adjacent scouring are useful clues to identify suspect leeward terrain features. Cracking, collapsing, and stiffer feeling snow are clear signs you have found the problem.

    This photo from 2/17 highlights an area of wind-loaded snow and the variety of avalanche problems you can encounter. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    During the week of February 7th, several wind events lead to incremental wind loading and a resulting stack of thin hard slabs. These slabs were the most problematic at near treeline elevations on the eastern half of the compass and were more isolated in their distribution at other elevations. At the end of that week, multiple backcountry riders were caught and carried by these hard slabs breaking into faceted layers of old snow. 

    This avalanche problem can no longer be identified from snow surface clues. Probing and feeling for hard slabs over thin layers of weak snow is one strategy, but by the time you find the avalanche problem, you will be on the avalanche problem. The best travel advice is to manage the terrain for a wind slab avalanche problem. As these hard slabs formed on the lee sides of tree fences, on the lee sides of ridged terrain features, and in concave catchments such as gullies.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are a concern in wind-sheltered terrain on the north half of the compass.  Where the snow surface is weak and cohesionless, you can easily trigger sluffs that entrain the top 8" to 14" of loose snow on slopes steeper than 35 degrees.  The recent storm has increased the snow available for loose avalanches to entrain.  Ski cuts, moving across the fall-line while descending, or choosing lower-angled slopes are effective techniques to manage this problem. These point-release avalanches will accumulate more mass in long-running, steep terrain. Use caution above gullies where an avalanche can pile more deeply and above trees and cliffs where the consequences of getting caught in a sluff will be magnified. This problem is most common in sheltered terrain below treeline, but you can also trigger sluffs on some near treeline slopes and a few above treeline slopes.    

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche conditions remain on this vague line between concerning and less concerning. It is hard to put your finger exactly on the spot that conditions have lined up. One thing that we can say for certain is that we are no longer in an open season midset like we saw back in January. The snowpack has become more complicated during February, and it would not be surprising if another person triggers or is caught in an avalanche this weekend. Take that fact seriously, and take your time with decision-making and how you plan to manage avalanche terrain. 

Dry weather through most of 2022 so far, has created a very weak layer of faceted snow on many aspects, other than steep southerly slopes at lower elevations. This layer of weak snow has now been buried by a stack of thin hard slabs or the recent fresh snow. New slab avalanche problems have since crept up, but have not yet become widespread. In many cases, the slab avalanche problems are almost closer to isolated in their distribution. The difficult part is that backcountry riders are observing little feedback from these slab avalanche problems and that could lead to another "surprise" avalanche that catches someone off guard. 

Regions covered