Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a suprising and dangerous slab avalanche is unlikely, but not impossible, especially in wind affected terrain. You can reduce your risk by choosing more sheltered terrain or smaller, simpler slopes. Also, keep tabs on how warm and weak the snow surface is, and don't linger under large, looming blocks of snow at ridgelines.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Although limited, our data for the zone shows that this problem has trended toward unlikely. You can still find buried weak layers 1-1.5 feet down throughout the zone on all aspects. The most suspect place you'd still trigger a slide is in exposed wind-loaded terrain, and weak layers can be buried even deeper here, too. Also, the warm up on Saturday could play a role in triggering an avalanche. Areas immediately adjacent to the Cascade Crest will get rain Friday night into Saturday morning all the way to upper elevations, and areas further east will see a good amount of sunshine. Should liquid water reach these buried weak layers, it could reinvigorate instability. Cornice fall could become an issue as things warm up, and a big trigger such as this might be just what it takes to let loose a deadly avalanche. 

    This problem is tricky to manage in the backcountry. If you plan to travel near a neighboring forecast zone, consider reading that forecast as well to equip your toolbelt with more information. Either way, ease into terrain slowly and be thoughtful about the complexity and exposure of slopes you plan to ski or ride. You're unlikely to get clear feedback from the snowpack before triggering a large slide in consequential terrain. 

    (3/1/2026)

    Snow machine triggered large (D2) persistent slab and self extricated on 2/28. Darland Mt. NE aspect, 6700 ft.

    HS- AMu-R2-D2-O @ NE, 6700' Photo: Northwest Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Despite freezing levels spiking past upper elevations on Saturday, we have some factors working in our favor to keep the likelihood of this problem from spiking in turn. Read on in the discussion if you're curious what those factors are. Most avalanches should be small, and you'll probably need a very steep slope for anything to really get moving. Nonetheless, if you're sinking past your boot tops into wet, mushy snow, steer around very steep terrain where you could be knocked off your feet and carried into terrain traps below. If curiosity strikes, you can dig in and see how far down the snow is getting wet within the snowpack. Buried weak layers getting wet are a red flag for a much larger, surprising slab avalanche. If you can easily make a snowball with a gloved hand or even squeeze water out, that snow is not dry. Rollerballs falling naturally or from your equipment, snow shedding from rocks and trees, and drooping cornices also indicate instability.

    (1/31/2026)

    You might see snow similar to this that slides easily on a crust below on Saturday.

    An intentionally triggered wet loose avalanche on a northeast aspect at 6300 ft.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

If you're here for the wet loose factors, here you go. Fortunately or unfortunately, the snowpack is already moist in most terrain from the warm up already impacting the region. This will help keep things a little more glued together on Saturday. Areas immediately adjacent to the Cascade Crest will receive some rain, but most of it will fall overnight, which will also aid in keeping the likelihood lower (if you happen to be planning a midnight stroll Friday night, maybe reconsider). Areas further east will be much drier and sunnier, but these same areas haven't received recent snowfall, so the snow won't be as easily influenced. Lastly, there is a crust that formed recently, which, although not very refrozen on Saturday, will help keep size of avalanches small.

The weak layers we are tracking are the 2/13 buried surface hoar and facets around the 2/7 crust. These two layers are very close together and can often appear as a single, weak layer. Their depth and prominence vary across the zone, especially on sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations. Despite limited data points, we have moderate confidence that this weak snowpack structure exists across the zone, and we have growing confidence that these layers are healing. An NWAC Forecaster was in the backcountry around Mission Ridge on Thursday and got no notable snowpack test results. They also reported a semi ski-supportable crust on a NW aspect, indicating that even more polar aspects are starting to feel the effects of warm weather. Another NWAC Forecaster was in the Salmon La Sac on Friday and got similarly unremarkable test results. They reported a semi ski-supportable crust on E aspects, and a boot supportable crust on S aspects.

Prepare for a steep entry fee to get to higher elevation terrain where enough snow exists for on-snow recreation. Blewett Pass remains largely unskiable. Trailheads and groomed roads are patchy until you get to at least middle elevations. Give yourself extra time and precaution to tackle these conditions.

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