Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stormy weather may bring dangerous avalanche conditions, especially to higher elevations and the volcanoes. While all steep open slopes with more than 8 inches of new snow are suspect, give wind loaded terrain a wide berth. If the sun pops out, the snow could change rapidly and release natural loose slides.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    By Wednesday morning, most of the storm snow will already be on the ground. Start the day questioning any steep open slope. Use hand pits, uptrack tests, and small slopes to see how the new snow reacts. If it fails in blocks or slides easily, then steer clear of steep open areas. You may find soft slabs or subtle interstorm layers due to changes in temperature or precipitation rates on Tuesday night. 

    Expect slabs to be thicker and firmer in wind loaded areas. These spots could produce avalanches, even if you don’t see signs of unstable snow in sheltered terrain. Look for textured surfaces and sharp wind lips to highlight potentially loaded slopes. Steer around firm pillow-like slabs. 

    If the sun comes out, conditions may change quickly. It's always hard to say if it will make things more or less stable. Keep checking the snowpack, throughout the day, and be ready to dial it back if needed.

    (12/19/2025)

    Handpits can help highlight potential failure points in the upper snowpack.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    This is an “if-then” problem. The sky forecast for Wednesday is tricky, but if the sun pops out, then expect rollerballs and natural wet loose slides. It may not take much sunshine to set things in motion. If you’re feeling the warmth of the sun, odds are, so is the snow. Watch for snow shedding from trees and rocks. This may trigger natural loose slides on the slopes below. Pay attention to what’s above you, and look for routes that help you avoid being on or under steep sunny terrain.

    (2/10/2026)

    Example: Rollerballs as snow sheds from rocks and trees earlier this winter. Slopes like this could produce natural wet loose slides on Wednesday. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

Don’t be surprised if you encounter a wide range of conditions on Wednesday. Things might be very different as you gain elevation and as the weather changes through the day. Couple that with less field data than normal, and we have a much greater level of uncertainty. Give yourself several options to adjust to what you find and the potentially changing conditions during. 

The new snow will fall on a solid old surface. We think it will bond well to this warmer, irregular crust, but that could vary by elevation and across the zone. Below the new snow, the upper snowpack is strong, thanks in large part to the solid 3/25 crust. Until this burly layer breaks down, we aren’t very worried about what’s below. 

The new snow will certainly help travel conditions. It may also hide many of the nasty obstacles we’ve been dodging, including patches of bare ground and rocks. Don't let the powder fool you. Take it slow. There are lots of open creeks, downed logs, and random holes to negotiate while traveling. 

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