Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Moderate at all elevations. It will be possible to trigger fresh wind slabs 1-2  feet deep on recently wind-loaded slopes. It is also possible, though unlikely, to trigger a much larger avalanche failing on weak snow deeper in the snowpack.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Over the last couple of weeks, several small pulses of snowfall have been followed by strong north winds. This pattern has built thin wind slabs on lee slopes and in cross-loaded terrain, and in some places these layers have stacked into deeper, more variable drifts. The most recent snowfall brought highly variable amounts, with some areas receiving only a trace while areas just outside the forecast zone picked up as much as a foot. North winds following this latest pulse have been lighter and are gradually decreasing.

    Observations from 3/21 found thin slabs of recently drifted snow resting on older, harder wind slabs, with poor bonding in some locations. More protected terrain showed better stability. Wind slabs may still be reactive today in specific terrain 1-2' in depth, especially cross-loaded slopes and gullies, terrain near ridgelines, and convex rollovers. Recent snowfall may make it harder to recognize slopes that were previously loaded by wind.

    In areas that received more new snow, instability may not be limited to just lee features. Sheltered terrain should also be assessed for how well the new snow has bonded to the old surface. In protected areas, near-surface facets may exist beneath the most recent snow, slowing the bonding process.

    In isolated areas, a wind slab avalanche could step down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack, particularly north of Thompson Pass (see Problem 2).

    (3/17/2026)

    evample of a cross-loaded gully

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    We have been in a period of low stress and no avalanche activity involving our persistent weak layers. This is a low-likelihood/ high consequence problem. However, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche in isolated areas where the snowpack is thinner and weaker, or in areas outside our forecast zone that have received higher recent storm totals.

    These weak layers remain buried 1–3 feet deep in many locations and have not gone away. While they have been quiet recently, they could become active again with additional loading from new snow, wind, or warming temperatures.

    In the meantime, careful terrain management remains important. Pay extra attention to thinner snowpack areas and consequences of being wrong, as persistent slab avalanches can remain dangerous even during quiet periods.

    HS-N-R2-D3-O

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on Averys/SW that failed at a PWL on 2/20 and ran full path ~3800'.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack, making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood but high-consequence problem most likely to be triggered in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in mid February

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion

The last couple of small rounds of snowfall have improved riding conditions in some areas. Wind-exposed terrain remains stripped and damaged, while more protected areas have held onto the recent snow. At the same time, fresh snow has made it more difficult to identify old wind slabs and thin spots in the snowpack, especially for those unfamiliar with the area or this season’s unusual snowpack structure.

Windward terrain generally holds a thin snowpack, and in some places it is made up mostly of weak faceted snow and depth hoar close to the surface. Lee terrain has multiple layers of wind slab that become harder with depth.

Users should keep in mind that repeated strong north wind events have created a highly variable snowpack that can change significantly over short distances. Snowpack evaluation should be done on a slope-by-slope basis, especially north of Thompson Pass where unusually weak snow still exists in the mid and lower snowpack. Temperatures have remained below average for the last month, promoting continued faceting within the snowpack. This may become especially important in areas that received more recent snow, and it will matter even more if the region begins to receive more meaningful snowfall.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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