Avalanche forecast

Swan Range

Flathead Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Warm temperatures overnight and today may increase the chance of wet snow avalanches. If you are sinking into mushy snow, choose lower-angled terrain to reduce your risk. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, temperatures climbed well-above freezing at all mid and several upper-elevation weather stations. Field observations are limited, but we assume slopes receiving sustained sunshine experienced a Wet Loose avalanche cycle as last weekend's surface snow warmed. Slides were larger and more dangerous in the Flathead Range and southern Glacier Park, which benefited the most from the recent snowfall. 

    Temperatures this morning are warm, with readings on either side of freezing at mid and upper elevations. The overnight refreezing of the snow surface was poor, and we expect only a thin, unsupportable surface crust in many locations. As temperatures warm, this crust should break down quickly, allowing you to sink into the mushy snow beneath and increase the chance that you could trigger a wet loose slide. Resulting slides may travel far on the underlying crust and could trigger a larger slide on a buried weak layer. Upper-elevation locations exposed to south-southwest winds may remain frozen. 

    We are unsure if yesterday's warming affected shady aspects. Today's temperatures will top yesterday's and may affect snow in shady aspects. Slopes warming for the first time will develop rollerballs, which are a precursor to a wet slide. Choose lower-angle slopes where you or your machine sink more than a few inches into the surface mush—limit time spent in long-running gullies or above terrain traps where the snow can pile up deep. 

    (12/28/2022)

    Dirty debris signifies that this slide ran on the ground removing the seasonal snow cover. This slide looks to be a wet loose. However, there may be a crown at the top of the slide.

    Photo: Mark Dundas

Avalanche Discussion

Spring temperatures have finally arrived in the Flathead following an unusually cool winter and early spring. Yesterday, Stahl Peak (6030'), Noisy Basin (6040'), and Flattop (6300') reached the low 40's F with upper elevation stations at WMR and Tunnel Ridge climbing to the upper-30s. As of 0400 this morning, temperatures remain at or above freezing at many mid-elevation stations. Today will be cloudier than yesterday, but we can expect temperatures to be 5-8 degrees warmer.

Wet loose activity in March was limited by consistently cold overnight temperatures, which minimized their size and distribution. Today, instabilities will develop quickly as the thin eggshell-like surface crust breaks down as the day heats up. We expect shady aspects to warm and moisten at mid-elevations and possibly at uppers. Wet slides have the potential to gouge deeper into the snowpack as they descend in elevation.

Warm weather increases the potential for cornice fall and glide avalanches. Forecasting for either of these is difficult and imprecise, and we recommend safe travel protocols to limit getting tangled up with either of these beasts. While traveling ridgelines remain well back from what appears to be the edge, as these impressive wind features are often overhanging. Limit your time spent on slopes beneath these, as a large cornice fall can trigger a large avalanche on the slope below. Glide cracks can fail catastrophically or melt in place. During periods of extended warming, avoid being on slopes where the seasonal snowpack is gliding downhill.

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FAC will issue daily forecasts through Easter Sunday, April 9. Following this, we will give snowpack updates several times a week through April as conditions dictate. 

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