Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Avalanche concerns involve old wind slabs and shallow storm slabs that may form today.  Human triggered avalanches are possible up to 1 foot in depth.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Light to moderate snowfall has started to fall across the entire forecast area.  3 inches have accumulated at the Sugarloaf Snotel and a trace at 46 mile as of 6am.  The report from Thompson Pass was not available.  Snowfall totals are expected to add up to 6-8 inches in the Maritime upper elevations with lower amounts on Thompson Pass.  Only light winds are expected to accompany this new snow so shallow storm slabs are not expected to be a major hazard today.  

    New snow is acccumulating atop old powder, surface hoar in some areas at low and mid elevations and old wind slabs formed on 3/7 and 3/10.  The most sensitive areas will be where surface hoar exists as this has the potential to become a weak layer in our snowpack in the future once more snow accumulates.  Old wind slabs have mostly locked up and gained strength, but may remain possible to trigger in isolated areas.

    Pay attention to new snowfall amounts and the amount of associated wind redistribution.  Use hand shear tests and test slopes to gauge how well new snow is bonding to older surfaces.

    The hazard will be higher if snowfall amounts are higher than forecasted.

    Photo: NWS

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

     

    There are currently 2 persistent weak layers on our radar, both are believed to be limited to terrain below 3000' and are not widespread issues even in the elevation band where they exist   There is a layer of buried surface hoar from Valentine's Day as well as weak snow below a decomposing rain crust from late January.  Additional snow and wind loading are slowly adding stress to these layers where they exist.

     Buried surface hoar from 2/14 exists in previously wind-protected areas from 1500 -2500 feet.  This layer is difficult to identify as it has only been found in a narrow elevation band and exists in terrain that was protected from the strong outflow (North) wind event that occurred in late January.  This layer has been found on average between 12-20 inches in depth.  This layer has been observed to be well defined in isolated areas.   Propagation in ECT tests has been observed in one location as recently as 3/6.  

    Below 1500 feet, a rain crust is buried 16-20 inches and has shown propagation beneath the crust in snow pits as recently as 3/5.  Due to the low elevation, this is only a concern in a limited amount of terrain.  This layer could be a concern in steep low elevation canyons, or on steep unsupported slopes below 1500'.  Use caution when traveling through low elevations with poor snowpack structure. 

     To limit exposure to both of these layers avoid terrain traps and consider using conservative terrain while moving through low elevations..  There is uncertainty about the current and future reactivity of these two layers.  There have not yet been any observed or reported avalanches on either of these layers.  We are keeping these on our list, as current weather conditions will continue to stress these layers. 

     

    (3/6/2025)

    Prominent layer of buried surface hoar at low-mid elevations just north of  Continental forecast area.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion:

A small-moderate amount of new snow is the most relevant weather that has the potential to affect today's snowpack stability.  It is not expected that this round of snowfall will be enough to create a storm slab of much consequence.  Expect shallow slabs to exist that could be triggered in steep terrain.  

This new snow is falling on Surface Hoar in some locations up to 3500', but once again new snowfall amounts are not expected to be sufficient to create much of an issue.

Prior to today a stable snowpack had been observed in wind protected areas.  In locations where wind slab formation occurred on 3/7 and 3/10 old wind slabs  were showing signs of gaining strength, but still may remain reactive in isolated pockets less than 1 foot in depth.  

Persistent weak layers mentioned above are a concern only in isolated areas at low elevation.  These problem are looking to be phased out as no avalanche activity has been observed or reported on either one.

Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/12 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    3    N/O    44     6 N/O     Thompson Pass    N/O    N/O   N/O     6    ~500 Nicks    0    0    143    5 N/O 46 Mile    Trace     Trace   22    4 N/O

Regions covered