Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise to HIGH as a spring storm impacts the area, bringing up to 1" of water or 1' of snow above 2500' in the next 24 hours. We already had a complex mix of wet and dry snow avalanche problems and this storm will be adding fuel to the fire. Large wet avalanches, glide avalanches, or avalanches on buried weak layers are all likely. Smaller avalanches in wind loaded areas are very likely. We recommend avoiding avalanche terrain today and steering clear of runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: We have seen a very active week of wet snow avalanches, with several large glide avalanches running into valley bottoms. There were large wet slab avalanches in the Girdwood Valley, near Lost Lake, and Carter Lake area. We continue to see wet loose activity on steep solar aspects. There are currently two large glide cracks on Mt. Marathon that threaten popular hiking areas below, and last week one large wet snow avalanche ran down into Lowell Canyon.

    A major spring storm is impacting the area today with very strong winds and precipitation. The Seward area is expected to receive significantly less precipitation compared to Turnagain Pass, with about 1" of water or 1' of snow at upper elevations in the next 24 hours. The big question is, how high will the rainline be? Models are estimating rainline to rise to about 2500 to 3000' today in the Seward and Lost Lake area, which is much higher than the forecast for Turangain Pass. If that is correct, then we can expect wet snow avalanches will be very likely. With the potential for very large avalanches to runout to valley bottoms

    Glide avalanche activity is also expected to continue with the added water in the snowpack. These have been releasing at an alarming rate for the past week and creating very large and destructive avalanches. Given the uncertainty of how the snowpack will react to this rapid addition of rain and snow, we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain today and steering clear of runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The buried weak layer of surface hoar and facets from mid-February is still lingering in the snowpack about 1 to 3' deep. Despite being buried for seven weeks now, with the added load from this storm it would not be surprising to see some very large avalanches releasing on this layer or potentially stepping down to this layer after a smaller avalanche releases naturally.  The big picture remains the same, avoid avalanche terrain and runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    If the weather models are correct and we see 1" of water or up to 1' of snow in the next 24 hours, natural avalanches will be very likely within the new snow. These will be most likely above 2500' where dry snow is falling and strong winds are transporting snow onto leeward slopes. Avalanches will also be likely in wind-sheltered areas that receive up to a foot or more of new snow. Storm slabs and wind slabs will become more likely throughout the day as the precipitation continues to accumulate. 

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