Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Increasingly warm weather and a marginal refreeze overnight will raise the avalanche danger to MODERATE due to wet avalanche concerns. Loose snow avalanches are the most likely problem.  Roller balls, pinwheels, and sinking past your ankles into a punchy, wet snowpack indicate it's time to find colder snow or lower-angled terrain.  A chance persists for you to trigger a slab avalanche near and above treeline on slopes with a northerly component where you find a slab about a foot thick resting above a crust.  Carefully assess the bonding between the slab and crust and use caution if you find the slab has become wet during the heat of the day, as a wet slab avalanche can't be ruled out.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Thursday night's mediocre refreeze and Friday's soaring temperatures shorten the window for safe travel.  Manage for shallow wet avalanches once the upper few inches of snow get wet.  Wet loose avalanches often entrain just last week's new snow, and remain small, but the warm weather may allow a few avalanches to gouge deeply into the wet snowpack.  Long, steep terrain could grow larger or a few slopes could propagate wider as thin wet slabs.  Rollerballs, pinwheels, and ankle-deep wet snow indicate decreasing stability.  Move to less consequential terrain as the problem develops.  You can avoid wet avalanches by traveling early while snow surfaces are frozen or moving to colder aspects as the day warms up. 

    These recent wet loose avalanches on Gothic exemplify the average size you can expect to encounter later today. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    New and windblown snow last week formed slabs about 1 to 2 feet thick, especially on terrain features favored by westerly winds.  These slabs have bonded well in most terrain, with a few potential exceptions where they formed over a faceted crust.  This buried weak layer is variable across the landscape.  Carefully assess slab size, bonding, and terrain consequences before riding on suspect terrain highlighted by the rose.  

    There's a rare chance you can still trigger a deep persistent slab on high, northerly aspects where the snowpack remains winter-like. Terrain where the snowpack is unusually shallow due to wind effects or previous avalanche activity is most concerning.  Choose deeper, more uniform snowpacks over thin, rocky areas to reduce your risk.   

    This persistent slab was triggered by a shallow wet loose avalanche on Teocalli Mountain (4/7/2025).  

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Increasingly warm weather and poor overnight refreeze will allow meltwater to drain into the snowpack.  Meltwater may flood buried weak layers/interfaces on a few isolated slopes and destabilize the snowpack.  The interface of the greatest concern is the April Fool's crust, 1 to 2 feet deep on northwesterly and northeasterly aspects roughly around the near treeline elevation band.  Previous warm temperatures at the end of March allowed meltwater to pass through the snowpack on most slopes on the southern half of the compass, which greatly reduces the potential distribution of Wet Slab avalanches during this warm-up.  If you find moist to wet snow surfaces on slopes near and above treeline with a northerly component, dig down and inspect the interface for meltwater and check the bonding between the slab and crust below.  A loose avalanche could release a slab as it descends.  Wet Slab avalanche release is notoriously difficult to predict.  Travel early in the day to reduce your risk.

    A Wet Slab avalanche from previous warm weather in late March.  Rocky areas like this often produce more meltwater and increase the chances of a Wet Slab avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

The heat will be turned all the way up on Friday after a poor refreeze overnight.  Many upper-elevation weather stations did not drop below freezing last night.  The primary hazard for backcountry travelers is Wet Loose avalanches (recent loose avalanche activity).  The progressively warmer weather and weak refreeze may allow some loose avalanches to gouge deeply into the snowpack.  The window for safe travel and quality skiing will be shorter than previous days, so head out early and get off steep, sunbaked slopes before the snowpack loses strength.

There are a few other warming-related hazards to consider today.  First, as meltwater drains into the snowpack, a few isolated Wet Slabs could release.  Wet Slab issues have shifted to more northerly-facing slopes near and above treeline, with the most suspect interface residing just a foot or two deep.  Wet Slab concerns generally overlap with the Persistent Slab distribution rose (alpine, due-north slopes being the exception).  There is some confidence in the potential aspects and elevations, but the likelihood remains uncertain.  If you find a wet snow surface on terrain highlighted by Wet Slab distribution rose, consider choosing lower-angled terrain to reduce your risk.  The final warming hazard comes in the form of cornice fall.  Cornice falls are difficult to predict and can occasionally release dangerous avalanches once they impact a slope.  Limit your time traveling below large, sagging cornices.    

The chances of triggering a dry slab avalanche have slowly decreased over the past week. However, the problem has not gone to bed.  The most recent avalanches on Teocalli and Schuylkill Ridge highlight this potential issue where slabs exist above the April Fool's crust 1 to 2 feet deep.  Earlier in the workweek, stability tests produced propagating results on this layer (Teocalli, Cinnamon, Elkton). This further supports the need to evaluate slopes highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose, especially if you travel in high-consequence terrain.  There is overlap between the Persistent Slab and Wet Slab distribution roses, resulting from the transitioning conditions with meltwater draining into the snowpack.

Weather forecasts suggest a worse refreeze on Friday night, so wet avalanche hazards may worsen on Saturday.  If you are planning to travel on Saturday, consider a very early start and consider the short window of time for safe travel.

Events: CBAC's Party for the People is at the Talk of the Town next Thursday.  Come celebrate the end of the season with us!  (Don't worry, we'll be forecasting for at least a few more weeks.)

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