Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You may not receive obvious signs of instability, but that doesn't mean you can't trigger avalanches that will be large enough to kill you on Thursday. Reduce your chances of this outcome by selecting well-supported slopes less than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

     

    You can still trigger large, surprising avalanches that break 2-4 ft deep. Assume this problem exists on all upper and middle-elevation slopes and possibly shadier lower-elevation slopes. These avalanches will be large enough to bury people. Although the slides will be largest in wind-loaded terrain, you can encounter this problem on all steep slopes, including those sheltered from the wind. 

    Neighboring zones continue to report large avalanches failing on the Solstice crust. On Wednesday, the Mission Ridge Pro Patrol reported triggering D2-sized avalanches breaking up to 3 ft deep on the solstice crust in wind-loaded terrain off the ridge. To the west, the reported avalanches have only been bigger and more frequent. The Crystal Mtn Pro Patrol continues to report very large (D3) avalanches breaking on a similar layer as recently as Wednesday. This past weekend, a rider in the Manastash Ridge area remotely triggered one of these avalanches that likely broke on the Solstice crust as well. 

    Plenty of evidence supports that this problem is widespread throughout the region. So continue to reduce your exposure by choosing simple terrain less than 30 degrees and avoid travel under large, open slopes. Persistent slab problems require persistent patience. 

    The last known persistent slab avalanche in the east-south was remotely triggered on January 20th. 

    (1/20/2024) Photo: Chris Ofsthun

Avalanche Discussion

The warm and wet pattern continues for the region. The main story during this pattern has been the drippy, moist travel below 4500 ft and more winter-like conditions above. In areas where you notice wet, sloppy snow - be on the lookout for fresh rollerball pinwheels, as these are indicators that wet avalanches could soon follow. The forecast team thinks these have likely run their main course but are worth keeping in mind at middle and lower elevations. 

This weekend, look for changing conditions and a spike in avalanche danger as a warm atmospheric river barrels into the region. Stay tuned.

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

 

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