Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Rain and snow will add additional weight to our already weak snowpack and this extra load could be just enough to produce avalanches.  Human-triggered and natural wet snow avalanches will be likely on all aspects and elevations today.  If you go out into the rain today avoid traveling on or underneath avalanche terrain and stick to slopes less than 30 degrees.  

This forecast is sponsored by La Grande Sno-Drifters Snowmobile Club

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    The snowpack structure in the Northern and Southern Wallowas and Elkhorns remains poor.  This weak snowpack can be found between 2-6+ ft beneath the snow surface.  The depth of the weak snow ranges depending on your elevation and aspect.  Overnight temperatures increased and we received rain and snow.  Throughout today we will continue to add weight to the top of the snowpack with more heavy wet snow and/or rain.  This will give the snowpack a good test.  Whenever you introduce a big change to the snowpack it is important to increase your margins.   In addition, the warmer temperatures and rain will bring wet snow avalanche problems.  Small wet loose avalanches could step down into the weak layer of the snowpack producing much larger avalanches.  

    Over the past week, we have seen both natural and human-triggered avalanches.   This is the best source of information that you need to dial back your terrain choices.  If you want to avoid avalanches you should stay off of slopes greater than 30 degrees, and stay away from terrain trips, run-out zones, and other slopes connected to where you are traveling.  

      

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As we receive rain on snow our upper snowpack will become saturated.  We will see this in all aspects and elevations.  Throughout today snow level will continue to rise. Wet snow avalanches are difficult to escape.  The best way to manage this problem is to avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Whenever we have a big change in the weather, forecasting can be tricky.  With increasing rain above 7500+ ft on our nice dry snow and a weak snowpack structure we have many things going on.  The snowpack structure is unstable.  In the past week, we have seen both human-triggered and natural avalanches.  Warm temperatures and rain will bring wet snow problems.  These wet loose avalanches could potentially step down to deeper weak layers in the snowpack creating much larger destructive avalanches.  

As Caleb mentioned yesterday in his forecast, the slab we have sitting on top of weak sugar snow will continue to be a threat, and with the uncertainty of how the snowpack will respond to the warmer temperatures and rain, we need to increase our margins.  

With the word "persistent" in the forecast week after week concerning the snowpack structure, we need to continue to be persistent with conservative decision-making, especially when we are adding new additional weight to the snowpack.  

We appreciate all of the observations that have been coming into the WAC from all of our zones.  It truly adds value to your forecast.  Keep 'em coming! Submit your obs here. 

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