Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

3-6" of recent snowfall and SW winds have created wind slabs around 1 foot thick above 7000'. Although becoming less likely, triggering a persistent slab avalanche 2-3 feet deep remains possible on steep slopes above 6500'. 

Today's forecast is sponsored by Tamarack Resort

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    3-6" of snow fell across the region since yesterday afternoon. Southwest winds were blowing and drifting snow yesterday. You can expect to find wind slabs 6-12" thick above 7000'. You're most likely to encounter wind slabs on easterly aspects, near ridgelines. Local terrain features can alter prevailing wind patterns. Wind loading can be expected across multiple aspects as you gain elevation. Look for clues like shooting cracks from your skis, sled, or board. Pay attention to the snowpack collapsing and sounds like whumpfing. If you find wind slabs of recent snow, find a different aspect or choose low angle slopes (less than 30 degrees).

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Persistent weak layers that formed during a dry spell in late December and were buried on New Year's Day are now 2-3 feet deep. Recent warm weather, a lack of avalanche activity, and test results all indicate stability of this persistent slab problem is improving. Although it's becoming less likely, triggering a persistent slab avalanche 2-3 feet deep still remains possible today. This problem is widespread across all aspects and elevations. With recent rain, triggering a persistent slab avalanche below 6500' is very unlikely. You're most likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche in wind-loaded terrain above 7000'.

    These weak layers were responsible for a large, natural avalanche observed on West Mountain last week. Last Friday, we received an observation of a natural avalanche that failed on these persistent weak layers. Although stability has improved, this avalanche problem should still be part of your travel plan.

Avalanche Discussion

Warm and Wet

Since last Thursday (01/18), the weather has felt much like Spring. Six consecutive nights where the low temperature has barely crept below freezing at 6500'. The difference between high and low temperatures at elevation has been less than 5 degrees during this time. Friday into Saturday, temperatures spiked in the upper 30s at elevation and rain fell above 7000'. Since Saturday afternoon, the rain/snow level has been hovering between 5500-6500'. Although precipitation has been light, it's been steady, with 12-18" of snowfall above 7000' since Saturday. This weather pattern has helped heal some persistent weak layers buried in our snowpack. Dense, heavy snow makes up the upper 1-1.5' in the snowpack. There are also at least one or two different rain crusts 1-2' down. This slight cool down yesterday and today delivered 3-6" of snowfall to the area, dropping the snow level down to valley floors.

With the exception of a brief cool and dry trend Thursday night through Friday, this weather pattern looks to continue for the short-term period. Reading the words, "Pineapple Express" in the weather forecast does not exactly suggest images of winter. Temperatures are forecasted to increase going into the weekend, with chances of precipitation decreasing slightly.

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