Today’s hazard is moderate, with conditions expected to increase throughout the day. Temperatures are actively dropping, but with mid-mountain elevations still hovering around freezing, the potential for wet slab avalanches remains on our problem list. Through the afternoon, temperatures will continue to fall, bringing snow and high winds back to the region. With both a Winter Weather Advisory and a Wind Advisory beginning at 3 PM today, we anticipate the primary hazard to shift from wet slabs to storm slabs and wind slabs by this afternoon. With heightening avalanche conditions, cautious route finding, careful snowpack evaluation, and conservative decision-making are essential.
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With the last 48 hours of warming temperatures and rain-on-snow events, a natural avalanche cycle was observed across Douglas Island on 3/6. The Top of Ptarmigan weather station recorded a high of 32°F during the afternoon of 3/6. With temperatures still above freezing around 1,200 ft (as of 6:30am), wet slab avalanches remain possible.
Wind slab will not be a problem this morning but will be developing this evening, overnight and into tomorrow. The NWS has issued a wind advisory from 3:00pm today till midnight. Winds are expected to be out of the South in the 20-30mph range with gusts up to 50mph. Look for wind slab to be building on Northerly aspects especially near ridgetops.
With 5–8 inches of snow expected, and an additional 2–4 inches possible overnight, the potential for storm slab formation is likely. There is some uncertainty around the reactivity and cohesiveness of these slabs, but watch for signs of instability such as cracking and pockets of deeper snow. With high winds accompanying the snowfall, look for preferential deposition and loading below typical start zones, where wind slabs may form.
After a wet and windy couple of days, temperatures have quickly dropped overnight, as another fast-moving low moves into the region today.
With warm temperatures on 3/5 and heavy precipitation falling as rain, we observed an active avalanche cycle around Douglas. Multiple slides were observed along the TSA ridgeline, Slowboat, Hogsback, and Stewart. The CBJ radar and Thane infrared systems also detected numerous avalanches on Juneau and Thane. The FAA station at Eaglecrest recorded several gusts at, or around, 75 mph throughout the afternoon on 3/6.
Today, as temperatures cool, we anticipate the snowpack will begin to lock up, however as we move into this afternoon hazard will increase. We are still monitoring several layers within the old snowpack, but with saturation and cooling temperatures these layers are expected to become more stubborn and less reactive.
As temperatures continue to drop and snowfall begins, our wet slab problem will transition toward storm slab and wind slab concerns. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3/7 at 3 PM through March 8 at 4 AM. Storm totals are expected to reach 5–8 inches, with an additional 2–4 inches possible overnight. Moderate to strong winds will accompany this precipitation, with a wind advisory in effect from 3pm today to midnight tonight.
The observations you all have been submitting have been great and are much appreciated. Keep them coming!
