Avalanche forecast

Cooke City

Gallatin NF Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It’s going to be very warm again (downright hot) and a whole assortment of avalanches are possible. Conditions are dangerous. The snowpack is adjusting to a rapid change, big avalanches are breaking, and I’d avoid getting on steep slopes (and be wary crossing beneath them) until this heat wave is over.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    There will certainly be wet loose avalanches, but the greater threat are wet slabs that may occur as buried persistent weak layers become wet.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Some were remotely triggered just a few days ago like this one

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Falling cornices trigger avalanches on the slopes below. They also break further back than you'd expect.

Avalanche Discussion

It might be hard to imagine while you’re wearing short sleeves, looking at green grass, and enjoying temperatures that feel more like June than March, but avalanche conditions in the mountains are actually quite dangerous. 

Snow does not like rapid changes. Borderline record high temperatures and the lack of a solid refreeze for 2-4 days means our snowpack is undergoing one. Avalanche conditions will remain dangerous until temperatures cool off and we get a solid refreeze (hopefully this happens over the weekend). 

For today, it’s going to be very warm again (downright hot) and a whole assortment of avalanches are possible. There have been many avalanches over the last few days, expect more of the same today.

Wet Loose avalanches were easily triggered yesterday, even on shady slopes (see Mark’s video from yesterday). You are almost certain to trigger these slides on steep slopes with a fully saturated snowpack today and they can definitely entrain enough snow to be dangerous. The only redeeming factor is that they will likely start at your feet and run below you. Smaller Wet Loose slides are also possible in places where only the upper snowpack is wet.

Cornices are breaking off and triggering big avalanches (Cedar Mt. 1, Cedar Mtn. 2). Even high elevation and shady slopes are not immune (Miller Mtn.).  Slab avalanches could break as Wet Slabs (in places where water is percolating down into the snowpack) or Persistent Slabs (where weak layers buried 1-3 ft deep have remained dry), but the technical mechanism of failure doesn’t really matter.  The snowpack is adjusting to a rapid change, big avalanches are breaking, and I’d avoid getting on steep slopes (and be wary crossing beneath them) until this heat wave is over.

For today, human triggered avalanches are likely and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE across our forecast area.

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