Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very warm temperatures through the weekend will make for dangerous avalanche conditions. You may find higher danger in the central and southern portions of the Olympics that received greater snowfall since last weekend. Limit travel on or under all steep slopes.  If you observe widespread signs of instability like rollerballs or witness avalanche activity in the terrain around you, then avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Saturday morning will mark 48 hours since temperatures climbed well above freezing, and they are not forecast to drop until at least the middle of next week. As the upper layers of snow rapidly melt, water filters through the snowpack and the bonds that hold the mountains together come undone.

    While wet avalanche activity is usually confined to southerly aspects and/or lower and mid-elevation terrain, conditions are now warm enough to be an issue regardless of aspect or elevation.

    Wet mushy snow, rollerballs and smaller wet avalanches are the typical observations for wet avalanche activity. Well these signs of instability are already here and not going away any time soon. It’s also impossible to predict where and when these will occur. The only remedy is to stay out of the way - stick to low-angle slopes with minimal exposure to steep terrain overhead.

    It’s worth noting that small avalanches or cornice falls can trigger a slab avalanche lower on the slope.

    (3/15/2024)

    Wet avalanche activity was observed on the upper-elevation, north and east aspects around Klahhane Bowl.  Expect more wet avalanche activity on shady slopes - and of course sunny ones - through the weekend.

    Photo: Kaitlin Harrigan

Avalanche Discussion

Observers at and near Hurricane Ridge reported additional wet avalanche activity on Friday, with a handful of wet loose avalanches to D2 in size. It's fairly safe to assume the same level - or greater - of avalanche activity is found in other parts of the range.  The Olympics are feeling the effects of a stretch of very warm, sunny weather. It is the first big, spring-like warming event of the year, with high temperatures in the 50’s and freezing levels well over 10,000’. Very warm conditions into next week could produce significant slab and loose snow avalanches. When planning for the weekend, consider that this is one of the times when an ‘improbable’ avalanche might actually occur.

A storm cycle started on March 9th, dropping almost 3" of water, likely 2-3' of now settled storm snow, in the Hurricane Ridge area and helping the late-season snowpack gain back some lost ground. Other remote weather stations recorded double the precipitation, with many showing 6" or more in the same time period from the 9th through the 15th. Given variations in new snow amounts and temperatures across the forecast zone, you could see a level of avalanche activity corresponding more with High than Considerable. As always, be prepared to make your own observations and changes plans as needed.

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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