Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Unseasonably warm temperatures and strong sun are creating unstable conditions on all aspects and at all elevations. Wet avalanches are difficult to predict - there is a high level of uncertainty as to where, when, or how many will occur. The only way to reduce risk is to avoid travel on and under steep slopes. Avoid all avalanche terrain if you observe natural avalanches occurring in the terrain around you.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We are going into the fourth day of temperatures well above freezing. Cornice falls, wet loose, wet slab, and glide avalanches are all likely. The peak of wet avalanche activity will vary across the forecast zone. Some places may have already seen many avalanches, while others are ready to produce plenty more. Some slopes might not have any activity other than a few rollerballs. It’s impossible to predict where and when any of these will occur. The only remedy is to stay out of the way.

    Stick to low-angle slopes with minimal exposure to steep terrain overhead.  Don't linger in gullies that connect to avalanche terrain above. Don't have lunch under glide cracks, sagging cornices or blocks of melting snow clinging to rock faces. There is little reason to recreate on steep slopes as the snow becomes even more sticky, gooey, and unsupportable. Travel conditions continue to deteriorate. It’s worth noting that small avalanches or cornice falls can trigger a much larger avalanche lower on the slope.

     

    (3/15/2024)

    Wet avalanche activity was observed on the upper-elevation, north and east aspects around Klahhane Bowl.  Expect more wet avalanche activity on shady slopes - and of course sunny ones - through the weekend.

    Photo: Kaitlin Harrigan

Avalanche Discussion

Observers at and near Hurricane Ridge reported fresh avalanches on Friday, with a handful of wet loose to D2 in size. No new avalanches were reported on Saturday, but observations were limited. It's fairly safe to assume the same level - or greater - of avalanche activity is found in other parts of the range.  The Olympics are feeling the effects of a stretch of very warm, sunny weather. It is the first big, spring-like warming event of the year, with high temperatures in the 50’s and freezing levels well over 10,000’. Very warm conditions into next week could produce significant slab and loose snow avalanches. When planning for the weekend, consider that this is one of the times when an ‘improbable’ avalanche might actually occur.

A storm cycle started on March 9th, dropping almost 3" of water, likely 2-3' of now settled storm snow, in the Hurricane Ridge area and helping the late-season snowpack gain back some lost ground. Other remote weather stations recorded double the precipitation, with many showing 6" or more in the same time period from the 9th through the 15th. Given variations in new snow amounts and temperatures across the forecast zone, you could see a level of avalanche activity corresponding more with High than Considerable. As always, be prepared to make your own observations and change plans as needed.

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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