Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

On Sunday, it will be possible to trigger avalanches on steep slopes in the Newberry Monument zone. While these avalanches will most likely be small, it is still possible that a small avalanche could step down to a deeper weak layer in the snowpack, which would result in an avalanche large enough to bury, injure or kill a person. This would be most likely to occur on North to East facing slopes, at and above treeline. Look out for active wind transport of snow, and avoid putting yourself on smooth, pillowed snow surfaces under ridges and cornices where wind may have loaded enough snow to form a reactive slab.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The current wind slab avalanche problem is marked by widespread evidence of wind-transported snow at and above the treeline in the Newberry zone, indicating active snow redistribution by wind. Wind slabs are formed when snow is carried by wind and deposited in leeward areas, particularly on slopes where vegetation is sparse and snow accumulation is more pronounced. With up to two feet of low density recent storm snow, it doesn't take much wind for redeposition of the snow to occur. There was one small human triggered R1D1 wind slab avalanche observed Saturday, on a steep NE facing rollover at around 7000 ft. Identify and avoid terrain features where wind transported snow has accumulated, such as near ridgelines, valleys, or gullies where snow might collect. If you observe cracking, collapsing, or whumpfing sounds, it’s a clear sign of instability. Back off any terrain above 30 degrees that exhibits these characteristics.

    (2/8/2025)

    Human triggered R1D1 wind slab avalanche on steep NE facing rollover at around 7000 ft

    Photo: Ryan Marvin

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    We have recived about 2 feet of new snow over the past week. While sheltered areas show a "right side up" structure to the recent storm snow, in many areas this overlies a layer of weak faceted snow. In some areas this weak layer is sitting on a crust, and there has also been faceted snow observed sitting below a crust in other areas.  Some areas have this faceted layer with no crust layer around it at all. Wide spatial variability means greater uncertainty.

    Despite this weak snow structure we have yet to see any avalanches triggered on this layer, and stability tests are showing evidence that it is trending towards stability. Even though this layer might appear to be stubborn to trigger in most places, specific trigger points (such as areas where the slab is shallower) may be present and could result in a fatal avalanche. Larger triggers, such as a snowmobile, or a smaller avalanche, could also be enough to trigger this deeper weak layer. Patience and a wider safety net is recommended for all backcountry users as long as this persistent slab problem exists.

    Photo: Ryan Marvin

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday I observed the presence of unconcolidated, low density surface snow below treeline and in sheltered areas near treeline. Small Loose Dry "sluffs" may present themselves in these locations, and are worth considering if descending slopes above terrain traps where getting knocked off your feet could have higher consequences.

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