Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A quick but potent storm is expected today, leading to a rapid increase in avalanche danger this afternoon. High intensity snowfall and gale force winds are expected to create areas of unstable snow, especially near ridgetops, gullies, and on open slopes that are rapidly filled in with wind drifted snow. A transition from stable conditions to avalanches occurring may happen over a short period of time today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Gale force wind will drift and deposit high intensity snowfall onto avalanche terrain near ridgetops, in gullies, and on open slopes, creating a wind slab avalanche problem. Slopes that are more filled in than surrounding areas with wind drifted snow are the main areas of hazard. Most slab avalanche potential will occur in above treeline and near treeline terrain today, but may extend below treeline to a lesser extent due to the strength of the winds.

    Slopes below cornices and wind drifts are the main areas of concern, but consider any avalanche terrain that in rapidly filling in with wind drift snow as suspect. Snow surface cracking and/or fresh avalanches are indications of unstable snow in the immediate area. Consider avoiding any avalanche terrain where indications of potentially unstable wind slabs are present.

    (1/1/2025) A car sized block of cornice broke off Wednesday afternoon, triggering a shallow wind slab avalanche. Expect avalanche size to increase today in this type of terrain.

    NE aspect along the Sierra Crest to the south of Mt. Lincoln, Donner Summit area, CA

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Some long-running sluffs, aka dry loose avalanches, are possible this afternoon, especially in wind protected areas where new snow is accumulating on top of firm rain crust. The warm to cold trend and expected snowfall amounts for today's storm is more conducive to dry loose avalanches than for storm slab avalanches.

    The main concern here is being caught and carried into downslope terrain hazards such as rocks, trees, or terrain traps that increase the consequences of an otherwise small avalanche. The easy way to avoid this problem is to choose less steep, less consequential terrain on a day like today when peak instability is expected to occur.

Avalanche Discussion

Rain on snow occurred to elevations above 9,000' Wednesday afternoon. Most of this rain occurred along the Sierra Crest, with lesser amounts along the eastern side of the forecast area. In some areas, thick rain crust has formed on the snow surface. In other areas, the crust is very thin or the snow surface is still wet.

Buried surface hoar exists within the top foot of the snowpack in isolated locations in the Ebbetts Pass, Carson Pass, and Mount Rose areas. There is a small chance that a wide propagating avalanche could be triggered in an isolated area where buried surface hoar exists. Today's new snow will increase the depth below the snow surface where this isolated weak layer is found.

Skies cleared for several hours last night. Given the above freezing overnight air temperatures and increasing winds, conditions were not very conducive to new surface hoar formation. That said, there is a very small chance that some new surface hoar formation may have occurred in solated areas. If you are out in the backcountry this morning, keep an eye out for any new surface hoar that is about to be buried by today's snowfall, affecting avalanche conditions in the coming days. If you see any, please send us a quick photo and location info.

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