Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heads up-

A wet, warm, windy system is on the doorstep and we expect avy danger to rise in step and around the dial with the storms arrival later today.

While we wait... northerly winds blasted the ridges for over 24 hours and we kick the day off with MODERATE avalanche danger on upper elevation, leeward, solar aspects. Human triggered wind drifts are POSSIBLE insteep terrain facing the south half of the compass. Switching over to the north half of the compass and becoming more the exception than the rule, once initiated, today's avalanches on polar slopes, could fail deeper into old, sugary facets now buried 1'-3’ beneath the snow surface, delivering a body-bruising slide breaking deeper and wider than we might expect.

All other aspects and elevations offer generally LOW avalanche danger. Riding conditions are a bit of a mixed bag, yet still register in the "this is better than a good day at work" category, especially on low angle slopes in wind sheltered terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    A 24 hour data dump from Currant Creek Peak (10,547') illustrating the recent north and northwest wind run.

    Recent northerly winds pack enough punch to strip upper elevation shady, windward slopes and whip up a fresh batch of stiff drifts on leeward, southerly facing slopes. A bit of an unusual setup for us. In addition, look for and avoid cross-loaded terrain features like chutes and gullies. By this afternoon winds are gonna shift to the west and south and that'll load slopes on the north half of the compass. But, whaddya say... let's keep it simple and just steer clear of fat looking rounded pillows of snow, especially if they feel hollow or sound like a drum.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Persistent weak layer (PWL)... it's in the name, the avalanche encyclopedia, and now a very well written and informative BLOG.

    Good news is... the mid December drought layer that is our PWL appears largely dormant. In fact, we haven't seen an avalanche fail to this layer in nearly three weeks and our stability tests along with pit results are trending nonreactive... in other words, in the right direction. And while that's encouraging, I bet if you're of the hunter-gatherer mindset you could potentially bag a rogue pocket that breaks to older snow in steep, rocky terrain. Now here's the tricky part of the song... the likelihood of triggering has decreased significantly, but the consequences remain severe.

    How do you manage an unruly avalanche dragon? I keep it straight forward and tight. I'm avoiding steep, rocky, mid and upper elevation terrain on the north half of the compass, especially where the pack is slightly thinner. And I remind myself... thin spots are potential trigger points and exist near bushes, rocks, or steep rollovers.

Special Announcement

  • Huge thanks to Deer Valley Resort for providing such an elegant venue and to everyone who joined us for last nights second annual Blizzard Ball... 'twas a lovely evening! Great to see old friends and make some new friends along the way :)
  • Urgent battery replacement required for anyone who received batteries from one of our participating "Batteries for Beacons" shops. Please review the "Batteries for Beacons" replacement notice on our blog. Batteries distributed through our "Batteries for Beacons" program this year have shown to be inadequate length.

Recent Activity

This fresh, unintentionally triggered wind drift from yesterday afternoon, occurred on a steep, easterly (with perhaps a titch of south) facing slope at about 10,000' near Currant Creek Peak. Catching my attention is the surprising amount of debris stacking up several feet in places. More deets HERE.

Check out more obs and trip reports from across the range and beyond, here!

Snow and Weather

Nowcast- Clear skies overhead reveal a beautiful starry morning as northerly winds blow 10-15 mph near the high peaks. Temperatures are wildly inverted, registering in the teens at the trailheads and soaring to nearly 30 degrees near the ridges. Snow surface conditions have taken a bit of a hit, but don't let your heart be troubled. On a go anywhere base, wind sheltered mid elevation, shady slopes, offer soft settled snow.

Forecast- The warm before the storm begins with a short-lived window of clear skies, but expect increasing clouds as the day wares on with snow developing after sunset. Temperatures climb into the mid 30's while west and southwest winds ramp into the 40's by days end.

Futurecast- Hang onto your hats... if you do that kinda thing 'cause we're in for a bumpy ride. Abundant moisture slides into the area through the weekend, coupled with a relatively mild airmass, and that combo delivers higher than usual snow densities and keeps the party going through the weekend. Expect nuking winds later this afternoon through at least Saturday night before tapering off.

A colorful map suggests an active weather pattern and a Winter Storm Warning for the Uinta zone.

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General Announcements

The Uinta weather station network was upgraded this summer and all that real-time info is found here. Simply click on the "Western Uinta" tab and then the "Weather Stations" tab to find all your weather needs.

We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach our team directly by contacting: Craig at [email protected], 801-231-2170, or Andrew at [email protected], or 860-460-8142.

General Information

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast was issued on Friday, January 31st at 04:00AM and expires 24 hours after it was issued. We will update the forecast by 0700 AM tomorrow. But, in the meantime reach out to us with questions, or if you see anything in your travels.

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