Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wind slab avalanches around a foot deep should be easy to trigger on steep upper elevation slopes that are being wind loaded again today. These could also release naturally due to expected light snowfall and moderate to strong easterly ridgetop winds. In areas sheltered from the wind with over 6" of snow from the past few days a person could trigger shallow soft slab avalanches. Continuing to avoid glide cracks is key as glide avalanches are still being seen across the region.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Another round of light snow and ridgetop winds are developing this morning that will keep the avalanche danger elevated again today. Between 2-5" of snow is expected to fall, tapering off in the afternoon (rain/snow line ~1,000'). Easterly ridgetop winds should blow 15-30 mph with gusts near 50 mph. The new snow will fall on 2-5" of snow that has accumulated over the past two days.

    Triggering a wind slab avalanche around a foot deep in wind drifted snow is the main concern again today. These avalanches could also release naturally on slopes seeing significant wind loading. With such cloudy skies it may be hard to see how winds are blowing the snow, yet it would be good to assume that the higher elevations are indeed seeing active loading. As always, watch for areas winds are drifting snow, stiffer snow over softer snow, and cracks that shoot out from under you. These are signs you've found a wind slab. 

    Soft slab avalanches might be found in the trees and mid elevations that are sheltered from the winds. During the cold and clear weather a lot of weak snow formed on the surface. This includes surface hoar and faceted snow. As of yesterday between 1 to 4" of snow has collected on top of this weak snow, which isn't quite enough to cause a problem. However, if we do indeed get up to 5" of snow today, then we could start getting enough snow to form shallow soft slabs up to say 8" thick. If you are headed out today, keep a close eye as to how much new snow sits on those sugary and featherly weak layers. Check out the photos to see what the weak snow looks like. 

    Dry loose avalanches or sluffs are likely today on steep slopes due to the combination of new snow on top of the weak old snow. These can be fast running and have more volume than might be expected.

    Glide avalanches and opening glide cracks have been observed across the region. These are unpredictable and can cause very large and destructive avalanches, so we recommend avoiding spending time underneath open glide cracks. 

    Cornices are very large and can fail naturally during periods of active wind loading. Try to avoid traveling underneath cornices while they are being loaded and give them a wide berth when traveling along ridgelines. 

    (2/15/2025) Photo: Anonymous

    Around 4" of snow on top of very large buried surface hoar was found yesterday in the Eddies area of Turnagain Pass. 

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