Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and rain will continue to melt the snow on Monday, and Wet Loose Avalanches are likely, while Wet Slab avalanches may still be possible.  The danger will be highest at those elevations and places in the range that see the most rain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet Loose Avalanches occur when warm temperatures and rain melt the surface snow and cause it to loose cohesion.  While this avalanche character may be likely on Monday it certainly isn't typically the most dangerous.  My greatest concern would be that human triggered Wet Loose avalanches might step down to the Dec. 8th buried surface hoar and become a more substantial Wet Slab.  With the snow level bouncing a bit between 7,500 ft. and 8,400 ft. this avalanche problem will only just extend into the alpine.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Wet Slab avalanches can be difficult to forecast.  I typically add them to the problem list when we first have rain on dry, winter snow, in conjunction with a buried week layer.  That's why they've been on the forecast for the last two days.  There continues to be the possibility of these destructive avalanches with significant rainfall in the forecast for Monday.  Failure often occurrs when free water percolates through the snowpack to the weak layer (in this case the buried surface hoar down 50 cm.).  It is also possible that a Cornice Fall, or smaller Wet Loose avalanche steps down to the weak layer.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    I feel almost silly adding Wind Slabs to our problem list as I can't imagine anyone wading through the rain, up into the alpine, and above the relatively high snow levels.  Nonetheless, whether anyone does or not, there is the potential for shallow Wind Slab avalanches on North and East slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

Our current avalanche characters are predominantly direct action avalanches and as such are produced by the immediate weather (rain and wind).  I have been sad to watch our snowpack shrinking a bit, but am optimistic that at least in the upper elevations we should see this storm transition to more snow than rain on Monday night.

Regions covered