Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A persistent weak layer near the base of the snowpack will remain as the main concern in our snowpack. This layer is found on all aspects above 4,500' in elevation. You can avoid triggering this weak layer by avoiding terrain that is steeper than 30 degrees and steering clear of open areas that lack vegetation to anchor the snowpack. Today's weather may increase avalanche danger as new snow and southerly winds continue to build slabs on northerly aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    We continue to see failure and propagation in a weak layer close to the ground. This weak layer consists of crust and weak, sugary snow. This layer is a result of the early November snow and a prolonged spell of cold, dry weather. Stability tests and observations are showing all the classic signs of instability such as collapsing and shooting cracks. Stability tests are producing propagation with light to moderate force. In areas where the snowpack is thin this layer is particularly sensitive, such as the Purcell Range and aspects where the wind has created thinner coverage. The snowpack in the Cabinets also harbors this weak layer but it has been shown to be less sensitive, in the Cabinets it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer, in the Purcells it is likely. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow is predicted to fall throughout the day on Saturday with the highest concentrations along the MT/ID border. Loading will continue throughout the day with light to moderate winds out of the south. You can expect to find wind slabs building directly below ridgelines and under steep, convex rolls at upper elevations. In many areas, the new storm snow will be resting on a layer of surface hoar. The new snow will only be a concern in areas where it is cohesive and slabby, so, pay attention to the surface conditions of the snowpack. If you see cracking in the surface of the snowpack, then you will want to stick to lower angle terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday will be a bit dynamic as weather has moved into the area overnight. The highest concentrations of snow are predicted in the Selkirk Range with over a foot forecasted to fall on Saturday. Predictions are much lower as you move easterly but we can expect to see 6-12" fall today along the border in the West Cabinets.  With 8" of new snow from Thursdays storm and more falling today you will want to keep an eye on the surface snow and pay attention to how it is bonding. We were finding surface hoar scattered throughout the area last week and it is difficult to track where it may have survived prior to this last storm. 

 In the Cabinets our weak layers are much less sensitive than the Purcell Range, the snow is also about 20 inches deeper. If I had the ability to rate them seperately I would rate the Cabinets as "Moderate", meaning avalanches are possible. Saturday, I anticipate that avalanche danger may rise with the predicted snow and winds favoring the West Cabinets. In popular areas of the Purcell Range such as Flatiron, N.W. Peaks, and Rock Candy we are in a solid Considerable hazard rating, meaning human triggered avalanches are "likely" in steep and open terrain. 

 

 

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