Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, the avalanche hazard is low. Nevertheless, the highest risk will exist on steep, sun-exposed slopes, particularly near cliffs and rocky features. If you encounter slushy, sticky, and wet snow, be aware of the potential for small wet loose avalanches.

Coverage for backcountry skiing and boarding has improved, but rock or log strikes are inevitable on many aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    As our snowpack adjusts to spring conditions, the likelihood of wet loose avalanches will increase, but today, the danger is tempered by the overnight freeze and forecasted winds.  Small avalanches will be most likely to trigger on slopes most exposed to the sun and areas near cliffs and rocks. Expect increasing avalanche activity as daytime highs and overnight lows continue to climb over the next few days with extremely warm temperatures next week. Generally, these wet loose avalanches start on the surface of the snowpack, as small point releases, but will entrain more snow as they descend down the slope.  Be careful when traveling on soft and slushy snow on and near steep slopes above terrain features, such as cliffs and rocks, as these features increase the hazard and likelihood of wet loose avalanches.

    Moreover, even though the size of avalanches is expected to be small, it is imperative for travelers to consistently employ appropriate travel techniques aimed at minimizing risks to themselves, their party, and other individuals in the vicinity. These measures include only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain while skiing and while egressing. Likewise, skin tracks and egress routes should aim to utilize local terrain features to minimize the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

    (5/4/2024) An example of a small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from the 2023-2024 season.

Avalanche Discussion

Miracle March has added a little bit of life to the dull 2024-2025 ski season in Northern Arizona. The last few storms have brought the snowpack SWE up to 96% of the historic median, with the historic median season SWE peak occurring yesterday; however, we remain in the 44th percentile for the season (SNOTEL Data Is Available Here).  Although a relatively uneventful season, last weekend, we had a small soft slab avalanche cycle with several small (<D2) avalanches noted within the Humphreys Cirque and Dunnam Canyon, likely occurring on Friday and early Saturday morning. However, post-frontal winds have stripped new snow on slopes across several aspects (i.e., anti-ski tracks are highly visible on in Snowslide and North Core Ridge), and conditions are highly variable as we wait for a spring corn cycle to develop.

Since Saturday, there have been no reports of instabilities, signaling a decrease in the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. Moving forward, dry and seasonal warm conditions are expected; this change to spring weather also facilitates a change in the avalanche problem. This week, the mountain has transitioned into a melt-freeze cycle, and with that comes an increasing likelihood of wet loose and wet slab avalanches on aspects with high solar exposure. 

Recent observations indicate that the snowpack is characterized by poor to fair structure, moderate to high strength, and limited propagation propensity; however, as a rule, avalanche danger often increases when there are large changes to the snowpack and as we head into the next week current weather forecasts are suggesting that temperatures maybe 10-15 degrees above normal next week.

The lack of snow and warm weather for much of the season means plenty of rocks and logs just under the snow, especially on W, SW, S, and SE aspects. Last weekend, many aspects were barely skiable, but this week's warm temperatures have further reduced the snow depth. Use extreme caution when accessing, assessing slopes for skiability, and egressing from the backcountry. 

Due to the lack of propagation propensity of buried weak layers over the two weeks and the lack of definitive persistent slab avalanches, we have removed the persistent slab problem from the forecast. Although removed from the avalanche problems, backcountry travelers should still be aware of the persistent weak layer presence as significant changes in weather, such as additional snow or warming, or large wind slab avalanches could increase propagation potential, causing large (i.e., D2-D3) destructive avalanches. The layers of concern include basal facets (i.e., depth hoar) at the base of the snowpack and faceted layers (i.e., buried near-surface facets) throughout the snowpack. The buried near-surface facets can be identified by small (i.e., a few centimeters) layers of less cohesive and lower-density layers (i.e., four-finger hardness) often sandwiched between denser (i.e., pencil hardness) or ice layers.

Due to the minimal observations and rapidly changing weather, KPAC recommends careful snowpack assessment, conservative decision-making, and avoiding wind-loaded slopes. Thoroughly assessing the snowpack of your entire route before committing to avalanche terrain will be key.

Lower elevations and previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline will have numerous very thin spots. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

Regions covered