Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There are two main concerns today. First, a buried weak layer about 1 to 3' deep could cause large human-triggered avalanches in sheltered areas above 2000'. The best way to avoid this problem is to stick to low-angle terrain and avoid steep slopes overhead. Second,  the sun and warm temperatures are causing a fresh cycle of natural glide avalanches and wet loose avalanches on solar aspects later in the day.  Glide avalanches are unpredictable and the best way to manage them is to avoid traveling underneath glide cracks. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A layer of buried surface hoar about 1 to 3' deep in the Seward and Lost Lake area is still our main concern for causing large human-triggered avalanches. This layer is most concerning above 2000' where the snowpack remains largely dry and the weak layer is preserved upright in many locations. While there have not been many avalanches observed on this layer in the Seward forecast area, we are still concerned due to the long-lasting nature of this type of weak layer and the high consequences of being caught. Heads up, seeking out sheltered dry snow on northerly aspects could be a likely place to find a problematic slope for this weak layer. 

    Buried surface hoar can cause avalanches on surprisingly low-angle slopes which can easily catch you off guard. We recommend a cautious mindset while dealing with this weak layer. The best way to avoid it is to stick to low-angle terrain and avoid steep slopes overhead. If you venture into steeper terrain you can avoid terrain traps to help minimize the consequences if you trigger an avalanche. 

    (3/20/2025)

    Snow pit in Lost Lake showing the layer of buried surface hoar. 

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Glide cracks have been opening up in the Seward area but we have not seen any confirmed glide avalanches yet. The activity we have seen in Turnagin Pass and Summit Lake seems to be mostly on solar aspects at mid and lower elevations. These large and destructive avalanches are unpredictable and the best way to manage them is to avoid traveling underneath slopes with glide cracks. 

    Wet Loose Avalanches have been releasing naturally and will be easy to trigger on sunny slopes (east, south, west) as temperatures warm up in the afternoon. Wet loose avalanches are typically small but can be concerning in steep terrain or if they run far down a slope and entrain a lot of wet snow on the surface. Summer trails located underneath large sunny slopes can be impacted by wet loose avalanches running into lower elevations. 

    Cornices naturally start to shed off ridgelines in the spring and can be surprisingly large when they fail. Try to avoid traveling underneath large cornices getting direct sun and give them a wide berth when traveling along ridgelines. 

    Wind slabs might also be forming today at upper elevations where loose snow remains on the surface. Northwest winds will be strongest in typical gap wind areas, like along Turnagain Arm and near Seward. Keep an eye out for active wind transport along ridgelines as a sign that wind slabs are forming. Shooting cracks and hollow-feeling pillows of snow are additional signs to help identify wind slabs. 

    (3/25/2025)

    Large glide crack on Mt. Marathon above the Jeep Trail.

    Photo: CNFAC

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