Avalanche forecast

Snoqualmie Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

If you plan on taking advantage of the warm weather by spending time in the mountains on Sunday, you will likely see wet avalanches. Keep an eye out for new avalanches with fan-shaped debris piles or snow shedding from trees and rocks gathering additional snow. If you notice these signs and the snow surface is sticky and wet, then it’s time to head for lower angled or shadier slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The combination of warm temperatures and filtered sunshine should soften the snow surface and produce the conditions needed for wet avalanches on Sunday. These avalanches will be most likely and possibly larger on slopes over 35 degrees that see direct sunshine. When you step out of your car, you may find that you are in a cloud or that temperatures are cool, keeping these slides at bay. However, as you ascend in elevation, you should pop out of the clouds and start to feel the warmth. Take a moment to step off your mode of travel and see how deeply you are plunging into the snow. If the surface is wet and sticky and you are sinking in past your ankle, you will know that it's time to start thinking about wet avalanches. Wet Loose avalanches often start at a point and fan out as they move downhill. They are also capable of entraining significant snow and even triggering slabs as they descend. Rollerballs, pinwheels, and other avalanches with fan-shaped avalanche debris are excellent visual clues that can help you decide that it’s time to avoid steep slopes in the sunshine.

    (2/4/2022)

    Wet Loose activity was observed in the Kendall Adventure Zone during a brief period of sunny weather on Friday. 

    Photo: Public Observation

Avalanche Discussion

Snoqualmie Pass overproduced their forecasted water numbers on Friday night when up to 6” of snow fell at upper elevations. On Saturday morning, snow was noticeably drier above ~4500 feet and was also observed to be wind-affected in some areas. As the day progressed, signs of wet avalanches began to be more widespread as temperatures increased and clouds thinned. On Sunday, once you get above the inversion sunshine and warm temperatures should again be destabilizing the surface snow. The resulting Wet Loose avalanches are a hazard in their own right, but could in turn trigger lingering Wind Slabs or possibly even activate the deeper persistent issues at the Late January Crust in isolated areas. On slopes that do not see direct sunshine, continue to keep an eye out for wind-drifted pockets of snow that could fail near confined rocky chutes or ridgelines. Cornices from the windy week may be fresh and fall during this warm-up, as well as chunks of snow from rocky ledges. Choose safe travel routes that put plenty of space between you and these overhead hazards.

Anywhere from 6-20 inches of storm snow (2.28” of SWE) from the past week is now sitting above the Late January Crust. At this point, we have not received any reports of avalanches on this “crust-facet sandwich” of weak snow. We are closely monitoring it and the load above it to see if it may reach its tipping point. The distribution of where this layer could rear its ugly head is a bit of a puzzle. The firm crust exists everywhere, but the location of the weak snow could be more likely on slopes that do not see direct sunshine at middle to upper elevations. The snowpack above this layer has consolidated into a more cohesive slab the past few days and our estimate of its distribution is not absolute. So you need to take the time to dig down and investigate the bond and reactivity of this easily identifiable layer of concern before you commit to any slope.

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