The avalanche danger will be increasing through the day to Considerable. Temperatures will increase to forty degrees near 10,000ft. As ambient air temperatures rise and slopes get direct sun, human triggered wet avalanches will be likely on southerly aspects at all elevations and all aspects below 9,000ft. Natural avalanches will be possible. Weak layers below the March snowfall are buried one to three feet deep and have resulted in large avalanches in the last week. These slabs lurk on steep slopes above 9,000ft on the northerly half of the compass.
The persistent weak layer formed during the January/February drought remains one to three feet down in the snowpack. Slab depths may be up to three feet thick. Triggering this weak layer may become easier during the warming trend and could result in an avalanche large enough to bury a person. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.
Loose wet avalanche conditions will be found on steep slopes throughout the mountains and will increase during the day. As temperatures warm it will become easier to trigger these slides. Carefully assess steep terrain and the runouts of steep terrain. Natural avalanches will be possible so pay close attention to overhead hazards.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Expect partly cloudy skies during the day. In the mountains, overnight lows will barely dip below freezing. Temperatures will rise quickly tomorrow with highs into the mid-forties at 9,000ft. Ridge top winds will be out of the west at 15-20mph.Snow conditions will change quickly tomorrow. The short freeze overnight will lock up the wet snow from the day before, but with warmer ambient air temperatures and only intermittent clouds to block the sun, the warmup will happen fast. As free water seeps into the snowpack stability will decrease. Persistent slabs one to three feet thick are possible on the northerly half of terrain above 8,000ft in the Tetons/Grey’s River areas and above 9,000ft in the Togwotee area. These slides may be easier to trigger in the afternoon. Digging down below the March snow to the weak drought layer is key in assessing the stability. Triggering a loose wet avalanche will also be possible on the southerly half of the compass at all elevations and all aspects below 9,000ft. Roller balls and boot cuff deep wet snow are signs that the snowpack is losing cohesion. The avalanche danger tomorrow will start out as Moderate and increase to Considerable as warming occurs.
