Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as strong winds and recent snow have built thick slabs on top of weak faceted layers. You can trigger wind slab avalanches that fail within or at the old snow/new snow interface or persistent slab avalanches that break deeper down in the snowpack on facet layers that formed prior to this latest storm.  In either case, these avalanches could be large and able to break widely across the slope.  Avoid being on our connected to slopes over 35 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from below or from a long-distance away.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Thick slabs from recent snow and wind rest on top of weak faceted layers that formed prior to this latest storm making for a strong over weak snowpack. These faceted weak layers formed around crusts, sandwiched around slabs or in some cases consisted of the upper 20 cm of snow. A cohesive slab resting on top is giving us this strong over weak snowpack structure.

     Pay attention to loud audible whumpfs and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow.  Avoid being on or connected to steep slopes above as it is possible to trigger an avalanche from below.   These avalanches could be large enough to injure or bury you.   

    Recent natural avalanche on an east aspect on the Lake Fork ridgeline. These east and north aspects on the leeward sides of ridgelines have seen the greatest amount of snow transport where slabs could be 2 to 4 feet thick.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong W/SW winds combined with recent snow have created thick wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward side of the ridgeline and cross-loaded terrain features. These slabs rest on top of firm crusts and older hard slabs and may fail at the old snow/new snow interface or within the new storm snow. Avoid obvious wind drifted pillows or sastrugi like snow, paying attention to shooting cracks on the surface. These wind slab avalanches have the ability to break widely across a slope and could be large enough to be buried. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

One to two feet of snow fell in our mountains over the President's Week storm combined with strong W/SW have built thickening slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. With better visibility yesterday I was able to get eyes on some of the natural avalanche cycle that unfolded in the Williams Lake area most likely sometime early Thursday morning.  Natural avalanches were observed at all elevations with the greatest concentration on Northerly and East aspects near and above treeline, which is where we've had the greatest amount of loading from strong SW/W winds. Although many slopes avalanched naturally, this storm did not tip the scales on all slopes. 

Conditions were less sensitive yesterday, but I was still getting loud thundering collapses and shooting cracks where I found stiff cohesive slabs on top of weak faceted snow.  Strong winds over the last several days have easily drifted and transported snow into varying thicknesses of slabs.  Upper elevation west-facing slopes have been stripped and scoured with snow transported to the north and east-facing leeward slopes, where slabs were over 2 feet thick.  With such strong winds, we've seen many avalanches start further down off the ridgelines as snow has been transported further down the slope.

Below treeline, we've dropped the avalanche danger to Moderate as we have not seen as much avalanche activity in this elevation zone.  However, steep open exposed slopes that have seen wind loading on west through east are where you could trigger a persistent slab avalanche at this elevation.   Take the time to dig a pit before committing to this terrain to identify if the strong over weak snowpack exists and always think about the consequences of a slide with terrain traps below.

Challenging and complex conditions exist, but you can use terrain selection to help mitigate the overall danger by sticking to slopes less than 35 degrees, giving avalanche path wide berths. Low angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide the safest skiing and riding options for today. Don't get lured into chasing steep powder on a bluebird sunny day.

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