Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A relatively warm and somewhat complex storm will bring snow and rain to the area overnight and into Monday. It may be easy to trigger avalanches in the new snow and they could occur naturally. Give yourself plenty of safer terrain options, and be ready to stick to lower-angle slopes if conditions are more dangerous than anticipated.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    A relatively warm storm may create hard over soft layering in the upper snowpack, setting the scene for dangerous conditions. Watch for natural avalanches, cracking in the snow, and small test slopes that slide easily as indicators of instability. If you see these "red flag" signs, stick to well-supported slopes under 35 degrees. Avalanches may be smaller at lower elevations but could increase in size at upper elevations. Use quick tests frequently as you travel to assess the conditions. See the video below for a quick test that you can use while skinning uphill. 

    Above treeline, avalanches could be bigger and more dangerous. Avoid steep leeward, wind-loaded slopes. Pay close attention to blowing snow and any recent wind drifting patterns. There's a chance for very large, natural avalanches above treeline, similar to a few that were reported on Saturday (see below).

    (3/11/2023) A very large (D3) natural avalanche on Rock Mtn. Estimated 6-10ft deep, 500ft wide and ran apx 1800 vertical feet. Likely occurred 3/10. 6,750ft, NE-NW. Photo: Ryan Minton

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanches will be possible where the snow surface becomes moist from rain, wet snow, or sun. You could easily find moist snow up to 4500ft, maybe higher. There's a chance for some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon, which could bring another round of wet avalanches to sun-exposed slopes. You'll want to exercise caution near terrain traps like above cliff bands or tight gullies where a slide could push you into hazards. Sticky, moist surfaces and wet snow that slides easily are good indicators that you could trigger an avalanche. 

    (3/6/2023)

    Wet loose avalanches ran on steep south-facing aspects last week.

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, observers reported a couple of very notable avalanches. A very large D3 natural avalanche occurred on the north side of Rock Mtn, likely on Friday or Friday night.  The crown was at 6,750ft, NE-NW, estimated at 6-10ft deep, 500ft wide and it ran approximately 1800 vertical feet. Two similar D3 avalanches were reported above treeline on Cannon Mtn in the neighboring East Central zone. We haven't been able to get snowpack information from these or similar locations above treeline for much of the season. Due to the uncertainty, it's best to use extra caution at upper elevations. 

Between 2/28-3/6 we received a few reports of triggered avalanches that likely ran on the crust buried around Valentine's day. Also on the 6th, observers near the White Pine drainage experienced a whumph and found propagating test results, likely the same crust 2.5 feet below the surface. On March 7th, Matt Primomo checked out the most recent of the avalanches on a southerly aspect below Skyline Lake. You can find examples of both observations below. 

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