Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We've entered a stretch of sustained mild temperatures that will last through the weekend.  On Saturday, wet loose avalanches are the main avalanche problem to contend with on steep sunny slopes.  As we move deeper into the weekend, we may start to see an increased risk of cornice fall, glide cracks opening, or even an isolated larger avalanche. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Mild temperatures and cloud cover Friday night will give way to periods of sunshine and warmer temperatures on Saturday.  This is a recipe for wet loose avalanches.  If surface crusts do form overnight, they should break down quickly on Saturday.  You're most likely to trigger a wet loose avalanche on the southern half of the compass but pay attention to any aspect where you find the surface snow becoming wet as the day wears on. 

    The travel advice for wet loose avalanches is pretty straightforward - if the surface snow becomes wet and you start to see pinwheels, rollerballs, and/or small natural wet loose avalanches on steeper slopes, it's time to adjust your terrain choices.  You can shift aspects to more shady cooler slopes,  move away from terrain traps (cliffs, trees, gullies) where even a small avalanche could do damage, or simply shift to lower angle terrain.  

    While cornices aren't particularly large in the Hurricane Ridge area, they'll become weaker and more likely to fail during this weather pattern.  Make sure to give them a wide berth while traveling along ridgelines and limit your time below slopes with larger overhanging cornices.  In isolated areas, they could trigger a slab avalanche on the slopes below. 

     

    (3/17/2023)

    Small wet loose slides started to release below rocky outcrops on sunny slopes in Klahhane Bowl Friday.

Avalanche Discussion

The last significant storm system rolled through the Olympics last weekend with about a foot of snow through Monday morning.  Lighter snow showers, cool temperatures, and periods of sunshine followed through Wednesday.  Older avalanche activity from earlier in the week consisted of generally small natural loose avalanches of both the dry and wet variety. 

On Thursday, the sun broke out and temperatures climbed to just above freezing with a light breeze at Hurricane Ridge.  Professional observer Sam Luthy found good stability and riding conditions on northerly/shaded aspects with settled cold snow.  Wind-affected snow was largely limited to exposed ridgelines and older wind drifted snow was unreactive.  Cornices in the Hurricane Ridge area were trimmed back and not particularly large.  On sunny slopes, a thick 2-3mm (1") sun crust overlaid 20-30cm (8-12") of drier snow.  The sun crust broke down as the day warmed and it was easy to ski trigger large pinwheels on steeper slopes in the afternoon.   ONP Rangers noted plenty of rollerballs and pinwheels on sunny steep slopes through mid-Friday afternoon.  An observation noted a small natural wet loose avalanche that ran a good distance on a S aspect in Klahanne Bowl and well as skier triggered small dry loose sluffs on steep northerlies. 

While all of this information points to a quiet and largely stable snowpack, you'll need to keep a larger picture in mind to stay safe as we move through the weekend.  Following weeks of cool, snowy weather we're going to see several consecutive days with milder temperatures, variable cloud cover and generally poor overnight refreezes.  Over in the Cascades, we've had large to very large avalanches release in higher alpine terrain in isolated areas, different aspects, and in very different parts of the range.  Region-wide, our snowpack is starting to transition from a layered cold snowpack and step into spring and there are some steps you can take to minimize your risk of getting caught in an isolated but larger avalanche.

 During this mild extended period:

  • Plan to limit your exposure to more complex, higher-elevation terrain where we know less about the snowpack. 
  •  Keep an eye out for subtle changes like growing glide cracks over the weekend. 
  •  As you move through different terrain and aspects, look up and be aware of your overhead exposure to steep slopes with large overhanging cornices.  

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant. New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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