Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Upper elevation slopes pose the most danger as recent snow and strong winds have drifted snow into slabs.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow underfoot, avoiding slopes where you find more than 8 inches of new snow or shooting cracks on the surface.  Deeper down in the snowpack you may find weak layers of snow near the ground, or in the middle of the snowpack.  Avoid slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide better and safer riding conditions.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and strong winds will bring an increased likelihood of triggering a wind slab avalanche at upper elevations.  Avoid steep slopes where you find more than 8 inches of new snow watching for obvious wind-drifted pillows and slabs that feel stiffer underfoot. The leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features will see the most amount of drifting. These wind slabs will be forming on top of a variety of different surfaces from crusts, to hard preseed slabs from strong winds prior to this storm and near-surface facets on northerly aspects.  Avoid steep slopes where you experience shooting cracks on the surface or slopes that are actively loading. A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. 

    Continue to watch out for overhanging cornices that can break back further on the ridgeline than you might expect as well as put a big trigger on the slopes below. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Facets and depth hoar continue to linger near the ground, especially on some slopes where we have a shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m of snow).  These persistent weak layers, especially near and below treeline have become more reactive over the last month with each significant storm. With wet heavy snow and the potential for significant water weight, we could see these weak layers become more reactive than what we've seen over the last week.  At upper elevations in the middle and upper bits of the snowpack, you may encounter faceted crusts or weaker snow that rests under stiff hard hard slabs. Avoid steep slopes where you get obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks on the surface.  

     

Avalanche Discussion

The bulk of this system has stayed to our north in CO, bringing us strong westerly winds. Snow totals have not been overly impressive, but higher amounts can be found at upper elevations.  The Powderhorn snotel site is showing  0.6" of SWE with 0.4" of SWE taken by hand at Poco Gusto, both stations are below treeline.     Winds have calmed down overnight and I suspect anemometers are rimed up this morning, with west winds expected to be in the 10 to 20 mph range today.  We'll see lingering snow showers bringing a couple more inches of snow  during the day with a chance of thunder this afternoon.  Light snow showers are expected through Monday with a transition day on Tuesday.  More promising storm systems move to our area Wednesday through the remainder of the week bringing a better chance of snow and return of windy weather. 

Strong winds yesterday were easily drifting the heavy dense snow creating stiff wind slabs near and above treeline and on open exposed slopes at lower elevations. Overall the wet heavy new snow seemed to be bonding well to old existing surfaces.  West winds today aren't expected to be anywhere near as strong as they were yesterday but still strong enough to transport freshly fallen snow overnight and today. Watch for density changes within the new snow and shooting cracks on the surface.    

 Although snow totals haven't been overly impressive, this snow has come in with a lot of water weight and may stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Facets, and depth hoar continue to linger in shallow snowpacks (< 1.5 m)  near the ground.  These persistent weak layers rest below slabs that formed from bigger storms starting around Valentine's Day through the beginning of March. We've seen these weak layers become more reactive with each significant storm as fresh slabs and additional weight stresses these weak layers below.   With snow expected over the next several days and incrementally loading slopes, we could see dangerous avalanche conditions develop at all elevations as storm totals stack up.   

At lower elevations below 9500' we may see rain on snow which could produce wet snow avalanche conditions.  Temperatures overnight dropped below freezing but will quickly warm into upper 30's during the day. Pay attention to the snow surface becoming wet and gloppy, paying attention to signs that the snow surface is becoming wet like rollerballs and pinwheels.  At these lower elevations, especially below 9000' the snowpack is very shallow, weak and faceted and may struggle to handle a rain-on-snow event or very wet heavy snow.  

Thankfully a little bit of dense snow has really improved riding conditions.  Winter doesn't look to be done with us, as an active weather week is expected with more promising storm systems starting Wednesday.  

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