Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations and MODERATE at mid elevations. Below 2,500 feet, danger is LOW.

Strong gusting extreme winds yesterday will have created fresh slabs, particularly at upper elevations on leeward slopes. Snowpack cracking or collapsing are signs that you could trigger a WIND SLAB avalanche. 

While less likely, you may be able to trigger PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches in isolated terrain across the forecast area. 

You can simplify your decision-making by choosing lower-angle slopes or slopes free of terrain traps like gullies, cliffs, or exposed rocks. 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Join us for our next State of the Snowpack chat on Wednesday, January 14th, at the Blue and Gold Boardshop in Wasilla with guest speaker Adam Smith, the mountain manager from Skeetawk.

Winter is here! Come and celebrate with us at the 8th Annual HPAC Cabin Fever Reliever on Saturday, February 7th! More info and tickets here. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Hatcher Pass experienced strong winds for 12 hours yesterday with extreme gusts upward of 65 miles per hour at ridgetops. 

    With ample snow available for transport from the last 24 hours on top of last week's storm, expect to find newly formed, touchy wind slabs today, especially on leeward features and in cross-loaded terrain like gullies. With warmer temperatures, heavier snow over lighter snow could create other widespread new snow instabilities today. 

    Watch for freshly formed dunes of drifted snow, a textured snow surface, or freshly formed cornices near ridgelines. Signs such as snowpack cracking or collapsing are clues that you have found this problem. New snow today, and flat light conditions may obscure signs of recent wind loading. While these avalanches may start small, they may entrain more loose snow as they move downhill, increasing the consequences of a small slide in steep terrain. 

     

    Wind gusts were strong to extreme out of the Southeast and above 20mph for most of the day at ridgetop level yesterday. 

    Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

    Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    For over two months, our thin snowpack sat stagnant, faceting and rotting under cold, clear skies. Periods of extreme winds in December scoured this thin snowpack or created dense, isolated slabs. This is now the base of our snowpack. This week, 1.5-2.5 feet of low-density snow fell across the forecast area followed by another round with about .4" of Snow Water Equivalent yesterday into this morning.

    Today, new loads of wind and drifted snow will test our weak, pre-2026 snowpack. It is still possible to trigger an avalanche 2-3.5' deep on old weak snow near the ground, on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. 

    • Avalanches will be more likely on slopes steeper than about 30°. This is a problem you can manage by keeping your slope angles shallow. 
    • Avalanches will be easier to trigger on smooth, firm slabs formed in gullies during December's wind, where the terrain could amplify the consequences of even a small avalanche. 
    • Whumphing and collapsing of the snowpack are indications that there is weak snow failing near the ground. Hand pits and pole probes will help reveal if you're traveling over old, weak snow or firm slabs.

    Good travel protocol can help limit the consequences of an avalanche. Travel one at a time, choose safe points to stop, and keep eyes on your partners.

    Photo: Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Within a 48 hour period, Hatcher Pass went from -20 degrees farenheighy to +20. This swing coupled with .4"-.6" of Snow Water Equivalent and 4-8" of new snow has created an upside down upper snowpack. Forecasters in the field yesterday observed active wind transport as winds remained steadily strong throughout the day.

With a slow, incremental load yesterday there is still some uncertainty about how new snow is impacting our weak and shallow snowpack. We are yet to see major feedback on our poor structure. We know that there are widespread facets throughout the forecast area and that in isolated terrain features like gullies and headwalls, you can still find buried, firm wind slabs from December wind events. Because of poor travel conditions and visibility yesterday, forecasters did not get a good look at how our weak snowpack is responding to a warm yet slow incremental load plus some wind. We will continue to gather information about sensitivity, size and distribution as this storm 

Recent Avalanches:

On Thursday, a party triggered a small avalanche on the bench below Microdot that failed on a persistent weak layer. No one was caught or carried. Another experienced local encountered audible collapsing while ascending Eldorado before turning around. Several parties skied the south ridge of Marmot on Friday and began working into steeper terrain without consequence.  See all recent observations here. 

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