Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

An ongoing northerly wind event is responsible for multiple human-triggered wind slabs at all elevations. These small slabs have typically formed on cross-loaded terrain features on the northern half of the compass. In one case, a triggered wind slab stepped down to the deeper and more concerning persistent slab avalanche problem. The best snow quality can currently be found in wind-sheltered areas, where you can avoid those hard slabs created by the wind. You can also reduce your exposure to the larger persistent slab avalanche problem by choosing lower slope angles or terrain below about 10,500ft in elevation. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Potential continues for human-triggered slabs that fail 2 to 4 feet deep on depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts. In some cases, these slabs could also be triggered from low-angle slopes connected to steeper slopes above. Obvious signs of instability, like collapsing or shooting cracks, have disappeared, so you can't count on those obvious warning signs. In the Northwest Mountains, slabs are most likely to be triggered in terrain where slabs are thinner or variable in depth from wind effects. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slope angles less than 30 degrees.  Southerly aspects and elevations below ~10,500' offer safer snowpacks, where slabs are less common and weak layers are often capped by stronger crusts. 

    A large persistent slab ran naturally on the west side of Mt. Baldy on 1/10/2026.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Recent northerly winds have created small wind slabs in unusual places. These slabs have typically formed where the old snow surface was soft and faceted. As the winds flow through the mountains and valleys, they have cross-loaded some terrain features. This cross-loading is even occurring at lower valley elevations. This avalanche problem is typically not forming over crusts on the southern half of the compass. While these slabs are small, they are hard and could pull you off your feet or push you into a more hazardous terrain feature. 

    A recent human-triggered wind slab on a cross-loaded terrain feature. Purple Ridge, 1/14/2026.

Avalanche Discussion

Last night's trace of new snow was a big win! Otherwise, we have to look back a full week to the last time we saw measurable snow accumulation. Northerly winds have been fairly persistent through the week, and somehow they keep finding snow to blow. There have been 5 human-triggered wind slabs since 1/14. These have all been small in size, given the lower amounts of snow available for transport. These winds have even transported some snow at valley elevations, and we've seen a couple of small wind slabs occur at these lower elevations. The below treeline avalanche danger has briefly bumped back up to MODERATE in the SE Mountain forecast area to account for the formation of these small slabs on cross-loaded terrain features at those lower elevations. 

The recent wind slabs are grabbing some highlights, but the more significant avalanche problem remains the larger persistent slab avalanche problem. This observation from Coon Basin noted a wind slab that stepped down into a deeper persistent slab. The whole avalanche didn't notably become large in size, but that is a real potential of a smaller wind slab, stepping down into a deeper persistent slab and becoming larger than expected. This natural avalanche off Ant Peak (just west of the CBAC forecast boundary near Marble) commands some attention.  Although the exact details are unclear, this slope may have failed due to wind loading on Wednesday. 

The snowpack is well below average, with the Gunnison River basin currently sitting at 61% of the 30-year median. The persistent slab avalanche problem has quieted down since the last winter storm a week ago. This shallow snowpack is still weak, and small changes in the weather are leading to brief upticks in avalanche activity, such as the very large avalanche on Ant Peak and the current round of small human-triggered wind slabs. 

 

Upcoming Outreach Events:  

Fireside Chat:  Jan 23 Dave Scheefer "Historical avalanches in Gunnison County."  Mallardi Theatre 5-7 pm.

Trailhead Days: Jan 23 Slate River 10 am-2 pm

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