Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche is most likely in wind-affected terrain and possible in areas generally protected from the wind. Triggering large avalanches is unlikely on slopes holding less than about 18 inches of snow cover. Conditions can change quickly as you climb in elevation or move to slopes that face different directions.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    What and where is it?  The recent snowfall, rain, wind, and warm temperatures built thick + dense slabs above weak, faceted snow and crusts on many middle and upper elevation slopes.Since Saturday, we and other observers saw several natural and human triggered slab avalanches big enough to bury people (view Avalanches, view Observations). Some avalanches were over 2 feet thick and up to 1000 feet wide. All of the observed avalanches occurred on N-NE-E-SE facing slopes above 9000'. Most occurred in obviously wind-loaded terrain. The recent weather probably created unstable slopes both below and above 9000', on other aspects, and in terrain sheltered from the wind. 

    How can you recognize it?  Triggering a large avalanche is most likely where 1) the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the surface and 2) old, weak snow exists below the recent wind-drifted snow. Be on the lookout for stiff, smooth pillows of snow on the more sheltered sides of ridgelines and large terrain features. You can use your boots, hands, or poles to quickly check for "old snow"—crusts and / or weak, sugary facets—beneath the more recent storm or wind-driven snow. 

    How can you manage it? Avoid steep, wind-loaded terrain. Cracks shooting out from you and "whumpfing" sounds as the snowpack collapses are red flags that indicate unstable conditions. Avoid all steep slopes where you experience these obvious signs of instability. You may be able to trigger avalanches remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, or to the sides of steep slopes.

    (12/8/2025) Large avalanches on E facing upper elevation slopes on McDonald Peak in the southern Sawtooth Mtns. 

    Photo: Ben VandenBos

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The threat of wet loose avalanches will continue while light rain is falling, possibly above 9000'. Wet loose slides frequently release on their own (naturally), and you could also trigger them. While these avalanches are not as large as the slabs described above, some slides could be large enough to bury people. These avalanches may"flank out" and grow wider as they move downslope. 

    Where the snowpack is a soggy mess, the prudent move is to avoid all steep slopes and the areas below large avalanche paths. 

Avalanche Discussion

Weird weather makes weird avalanches. And the weather has definitely been weird of late and this season, with several big storms and frequent periods of near-record high temperatures. In addition to the "weirdness," we—the SAC forecasting team, local avalanche professionals, and you—are working with limited weather data and observations. The combination of 1) rapidly changing weather + snowpack conditions, 2) weird weather, and 3) a lack of data adds uncertainty to the avalanche forecasting equation.  

We manage uncertainty by being conservative with our terrain choices and building in extra margin for error. The snowpack will stabilize with time, but nailing the precise time when specific slopes are "good to go" is challenging at best right now. Sorry!  

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