With light amounts of new snow and little wind, the avalanche danger will be low. Travelers should remain aware of the possibility of pockets of unstable snow in remote areas of the Kachina Peaks Wilderness. Thin snow and numerous exposed and hidden obstacles will be your primary hazard, especially below 10,500'; hence the "No Rating" for Below Treeline.
Yesterday's snow and wind forecast did not materialize, and finding new sensitive wind slabs is not expected. Only light southwesterly winds are forecast today. There are no wind monitoring stations in the Kachina Peaks Wilderness, so any adventurous parties should remain vigilant and aware of the snowpack and current wind. Retreat from any slopes with cracking and collapsing slabs of wind-drifted snow.
Where there is snow on slopes above/near treeline, some weak faceted snow layers in the bottom half of the snowpack are overlayed by harder cohesive slabs. These weak layers may be found on all aspects above and near treeline, in the Inner Basin.
Currently, avalanches are unlikely to initiate in these weak layers. However, substantial new snow accumulation will increase the likelihood. Backcountry travelers should retreat from slopes with collapsing and cracking snow.
Need goggles for the new snow? Get your KPAC goggles by STAGE at https://www.stageideas.com/collections/kachina-peaks-avalanche-center.
The January 20 storm (yesterday) underperformed. Near treeline, only three to four inches of new snow accumulated with generally light winds. Avalanche danger is low, but that does not indicate that avalanches are impossible. The thin snowpack and hidden obstacles under the snow surface will be a formidable challenge to pleasant backcountry ski touring.
Overall, the snowpack above/near treeline has poor structure, moderate strength, and a general tendency to propagate failures during instability tests. In these tests, cohesive snow slabs propagated failures (cracks) in weak snow near the ground (basal facets) or in other weak faceted layers in the lower half of the snowpack. These faceted layers are present across various aspects and elevations, particularly on northerly and easterly slopes. On January 20, a ski touring party experienced numerous collapses/failures where cohesive snow overlayed weak faceted snow in the Inner Basin. All of these failures occurred on generally flat slopes.
The general thinking is that until more cohesive snow is added to the snowpack, the chances of a human's weight triggering a failure in the weak faceted snow is generally not likely.
The Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL reports a snow depth of 22". Average for this time of year is about 40". With the thin snowpack, access options are severely limited across the peaks, and ski tours require significant effort and caution. Exposed and hidden logs and rocks will be encountered, as well as dry land on some slopes.
Last week, winds removed noteable amounts of snow from the north slopes of Fremont Peak. See picture below.
KPAC encourages you to practice avalanche rescue with your partners, so that you are prepared when backcountry touring conditions improve.
No reported avalanches this season.
