Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very large human triggered hard slab avalanches are possible in steep terrain. Warming temperatures and sunshine will increase chances of triggering an avalanche. Small wet loose avalanches are possible on steep sunny slopes near rocky areas.  Identify features of concern as you travel including thin areas in the snowpack where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    As the January slab warms throughout the day, it will be more likely to impact the weak layer below and the sensitivity to triggers will increase. Above 7500 feet, slabs could break 2-4 feet deep on weak December snow. Below 7500 feet, weak December snow lies 1-2 feet beneath the January slab and is becoming more difficult to trigger due to recent warm temperatures and cool nights. The problem is widespread but you are most likely to trigger an avalanche this morning on steep shady aspects, around convexities or thin areas in the snowpack at mid or upper elevations. Warming temperatures combined with solar input will make east through south through west slopes more sensitive later in the day. Identify terrain features of concern like thin rocky areas and steer clear. If you are wondering if there are weak facets below you, dig down and take a look.

    This avalanche was remotely triggered from low angle terrain above a thin, rocky convexity, illustrating a typical area where you might trigger an avalanche. (1/29/2024)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The wet loose avalanche problem is decreasing after several days of warm temperatures. Human triggered wet loose avalanches remain possible on steep sunny slopes on southeast through southwest aspects. We may still see the occasional natural avalanche on steep mid or upper elevation south aspects with enough heating. These avalanches will most likely be small but could be consequential if you are pushed into terrain traps or trees. If you start sinking deeper into wet snow as you travel, or step out of your skis and punch through above your knee, enact your exit strategy to a colder, shadier aspect. Rollerballs and pinwheels are a sure sign of this problem.

    (1/30/2024) Michael Wachs

    A wet loose avalanche that stepped down to the January 4 interface.

Avalanche Discussion

A few things to keep in mind today.

  • Moderate avalanche danger does not reflect the consequence. Consequences remain high if you are caught in a large, hard slab avalanche.
  • The December drought layer remains widespread and continues to show propensity to propagate in snow pits although there is increasing strength (pit scores).
  • The likelihood of triggering an avalanche has gone down but thin spots, convexities and steep rocky slopes remain the most likely trigger points.
  • Steep solar slopes are not the place to be later in the day.

Instability feedback is decreasing (cracking, collapsing) and slopes are becoming more tracked out. Continue to evaluate and assess the terrain features around you.

Regions covered