Avalanche forecast

Swan Range

Flathead Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Ride around small slabs of drifted snow. Slabs will be more common downwind of ridges and saddles. If triggered, these should be fairly small and easy to manage. Ride one at a time in steep terrain, and carry your shovel, beacon, and probe.

Expect rising avalanche danger tonight. Strong winds and new snow will build fresh slabs that may become reactive to the weight of person. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    A few inches of recent snow and moderate winds formed fresh drifts downwind of ridges and saddles. Slabs of drifted snow should be relatively small in size and easy to manage. 

    Ride around pillowy-looking surfaces or dune-shaped drifts. Cracking around your feet is a sign you found an unstable slab. Utilize inconsequential test slopes with a spotter before stepping out onto steeper terrain. If in doubt, choose terrain sheltered from the wind.

    (12/16/2024) Northern Swan, 6200', NE aspect Stomping on small dunes caused wind affected surface snow to slide on the 12/7 crust. Photo: Chris Gotschalk

Avalanche Discussion

An atmospheric river will funnel moisture into the northern Rockies starting tonight. Precipitation numbers are not overly impressive (.5-1 inches of water), but wind speeds are with strong to gale force category winds. Expect the avalanche danger to rise with the arrival of this storm.

Daylight hours today will be fairly mild, offering us some safer riding before the storm. The most obvious problem to manage will be small slabs of drifted snow. These will be more common downwind of ridges and saddles. Slabs are a couple of days old, so they should be gaining strength and stubborn to trigger.

The less obvious problem is the persistent slab avalanche problem. A feathery layer of surface hoar or a layer of near-surface facets is buried 8 to 16 inches below the surface. It exists on shaded slopes at middle and upper elevations. We've found these layers in the Whitefish Range, Flathead Range, and Glacier National Park. Rain seems to have destroyed this weak layer before it was buried in the Swan Range. If you have not watched Mark's video, here it is. He does an excellent job explaining the distribution and evolution of the persistent avalanche problem. 

Today, the easiest way to avoid this problem is to ride on slopes that face south and southwest. Fortunately, we have not seen the sun in a few weeks, so those aspects are still riding well. If you choose to ride on other aspects, be aware of slope configuration. People often trigger slabs on these layers mid-slope, at roll-overs where a slope steepens. On Monday, we found more reactive results in our snowpit tests downslope from ridges, as shown in Monday's video (the first video in the gallery). Tomorrow, be alert for shooting cracks and whumpfing collapses, which can signal storm snow is overloading the buried surface hoar and facets.

Downloaded the app yet? You can now access our region's forecasts, observations, and weather data directly from the Avy App (IOS; Android). Many features are accessible offline, so you can doublecheck danger ratings and travel advice on the drive or in the backcountry. And submit an obs while driving home. 

Are you looking for avalanche education opportunities? Check out our calendar for upcoming events. A Partner Rescue Clinic for motorized Riders on January 4 would be a great way to start the new year.  

Regions covered