Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Natural and human triggered wet avalanches are possible on all aspects. The combination of unusually warm temperatures, sunshine, and possibly rain showers will melt the surface snow on all but the highest, shady slopes. Snowballs rolling downhill are a sign that loose snow avalanches may occur. Small, dry snow avalanches are possible in the highest elevation, shady terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A skier triggered a sizeable wet loose slide Wednesday (view photo), and we observed natural wet avalanche activity every day this week. With today's expected near record high temperatures and the lack of a solid freeze last night, the threat of natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches will begin early and now includes all aspects below about 10,000'. The "flavor" of wet avalanches changes with aspect and elevation:

    • In shadier (NW-N-NE-E), middle and upper elevation terrain: Expect thin, surficial wet loose slides as the "newer snow" above the the rain crust from last week's storm gets wet for the first time.
    • In terrain facing the southern 2/3 of the compass: Thin surficial slides are possible, but the "newer snow" has already slid or turned to corn snow on many steep slopes. Larger slides that gouge deeper into a wet snowpack or flank out as wet slabs are also possible. 

    Both flavors of wet avalanches are most likely on very steep, rocky slopes that are sheltered from the wind. Small and large cornices could fail on their own or with your weight, triggering avalanches on slopes beneath them.

    How can we manage the wet snow issues? We can't just rely on timing. Avoid steep slopes where you're sinking deep into a wet, mushy snowpack or can easily punch your sled track or ski pole deep into a wet snowpack. In shady terrain where the "newer snow" is getting wet for the first time, wet pinwheels rolling downslope indicate loose snow avalanches may occur (photo at right/below).  

    Don't underestimate the power of wet avalanches. Be aware of the terrain above you and where an avalanche could carry you.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - DRY SNOW: In the highest, shady (NW-N-NE) terrain approaching and above 10,000', triggering relatively small wind slab or loose snow avalanches is possible. Wednesday, natural and skier triggered sluffs were reported near Trail Creek Summit (view photo). Recognize that even small slides can have big consequences if they knock you over and carry you long distances or where you don't want to go.

    (4/8/2024) These wet loose avalanches released naturally during the day on Monday. They started around 9,100' on a S aspect below Profile Lake in the Sawtooths. If you look closely, you can see that they covered a skin track that was set earlier in the day. Timing is everything in the spring! Photo: Ben VandenBos

Avalanche Discussion

The combination of little or no overnight freeze, very warm temperatures, partial sunshine, and possible rain is bringing the threat of wet avalanches to all aspects below about 10,000' and even higher on sunnier aspects where it isn't windy. The predictable, diurnal pattern of "frozen, stable conditions early in the morning turning to stable corn snow conditions and then to potentially unstable wet glop in the afternoon" is yesterday's news. Things just got more complicated.

Be prepared to have an open mind about what slopes you choose to play on today. Some slopes may have little or no time window with stable + quality riding and skiing conditions. Expect conditions, and stability, to change both during the day and with small changes in elevation, aspect, wind-exposure, and overall snow depth.

Relatively thin, surficial wet loose slides are the most likely type of avalanche you'll encounter today, but we can't rule out the chance of deeper wet slides that gouge into the snowpack, or "rogue" wet slabs.

Be ready to pivot to your plan B or C if you see signs of instability or something just doesn't feel right. Pay attention to overhead hazard (large cornices and big, avalanche paths above you) and minimize the time spent in the tracks or runouts of large avalanche paths that are sheltered from the wind.   

 

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