Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist near and above treeline where you can easily trigger a wind slab avalanche several feet deep on northerly and east aspects in steep terrain. A little bit deeper down in the snowpack, weak faceted snow and depth hoar remains widespread from the November through January dry period. Triggering a wind slab avalanche would be dangerous on its own but could step down into these deeper persistent weak layers taking with it most of the season's snowpack. 

Watch for obvious signs of wind loading like stiffening snow underfoot, pillow like features and cracking on the surface. Any slab avalanche triggered would lead to a nasty ride and could be big enough to injure or bury you. Lower angle wind sheltered terrain will provide safer and better skiing and riding options.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong SW winds over the last two days have easily transported the recent storm snow into stiffer, more cohesive slabs on the leeward sides of ridges and cross-loaded terrain features on East and North aspects. Continued winds today will be pressing the snow surface into harder slabs at these upper elevations. Be on the lookout for the telltale signs of wind-loaded slopes in your travels such as suddenly stiffening snow underfoot, textured surfaces, obvious drifted features that resemble waves or pillows and cracking on the snow surface. We've had natural wind slab avalanches the last two days, with east aspects seeming like the sweet spot for natural avalanche activity. 

    A wind slab avalanche would be dangerous on its own, but could also step down into deeper weak layers, potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack. Low angle wind sheltered terrain will provide safer riding options today.   

    Natural avalanche on an East-facing slope above treeline.  This most likely started as a wind slab and stepped down into deeper weak layers near the ground.  Note the intial drifted-in crown on the right side as well as the second crown lower downslope.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (01/31/2025)

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Persistent slab avalanches are possible today in terrain where a cohesive slab sits atop an older snowpack that's chock-full of weak, faceted snow. These persistent weak layers - consisting mainly of depth hoar and faceted crusts - formed during the extended dry period from early November through late January.  These weak layers are incredibly weak and widespread, and they're still close enough to the surface that you can easily impact them.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible whumpfs as these are indications you've found a slab/weak layer combination. If you notice these bulls-eye clues of unstable snow, stick to low-angle terrain and avoid being on or connected to larger, steep slopes.  

    A shallow weak faceted/depth hoar snowpack that formed during the Nov-Jan dry period sits underneath wind slabs that formed over the last couple of days. 

    Photo: Charlie Harrison (1/28/2025)

Avalanche Discussion

It's going to feel a lot like spring here to begin February, with warm temperatures and windy conditions on the docket for today.  Unfortunately, this trend looks to continue for the rest of the week. The 15- 18 inches of low-density snow from Thursday's storm has been settling quickly or been transported by moderate to strong winds over the last two days at upper elevations into wind slabs. Yesterday, SW winds were transporting the last bit of snow near and above treeline onto northerly and east facing slopes. This morning, mid-mountain temperatures are hovering just below freezing and should quickly climb into the upper 30's and low 40's. Winds today should help alleviate some of the warming today, but the intense sun we have here in northern NM this time of year is melting away much of the snow on solar aspects.     

In travels yesterday below treeline, we weren't finding the storm snow to be as touchy as it had been the previous two days. But winds are expected to migrate to lower elevations today, so you may find stiffer, more reactive slabs in steep open wind prone areas at these lower elevations. On these lower elevation northerly terrain, we're calling it a persistent slab problem, as there is not much difference between the near surface facets (the old snow surface) and depth hoar just below it. In some cases avalanches have been failing at the old snow surface but then gouging down into the depth hoar closer to ground.   

Near and above treeline, SW winds were easily transporting snow throughout the day, creating thicker and stiffer slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. We saw more natural avalanches in this terrain as slopes continued to load and will keep the avalanche danger at Considerable for another day at this upper elevation terrain. It seems like there isn't much snow left to transport with most westerly aspects stripped down to bare ground, but strong winds today will continue to press the snow surface into harder, denser slabs. Hard slabs can often give a false sense of security as they feel "good" underfoot with no signs of instability until you trigger it, oftentimes with it breaking well above you.  With our shallow snowpack right now and recent strong winds, the terrain that will entice you to want to ride is also gonna be the terrain that has been wind loaded.  

It sure was nice to see the mountains all white, covered in snow these last few days after the season we've been having. Unfortunately, our shallow snowpack is going to struggle to retain snow with this week of spring-like weather, as we just don't have much of a base. The storm track looks to stay well to our north over the next week, but there's some hope in long-range models for the middle of February.   

 

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