Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The chances of an avalanche continue to decrease, but triggering a large slab avalanche that fails several feet below the snow surface and breaks wider than expected may remain possible in a few spots. Plan routes, terrain selection, and safe zones around the possibility of an isolated, large avalanche. Some areas of wet snow may also form on sunny slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The old, weak snow continues to slowly adjust to the dense slab of more recent snow above it. This adjustment takes time and does not happen at the same rate in all locations. No new avalanches have been reported since Monday, and many tests/observations show a strengthening trend in the snowpack. However, some snowpit tests targeting the persistent weak layer produced unstable results each of the last two days. Overall, it has become more difficult to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. Still, it may remain possible in some places, especially in areas where the weak layer may be particularly weak or where it may be closer to the surface.  If one of these avalanches does occur, it would be very large and have dire consequences. 

    Many people will not see any evidence of the persistent slab problem today, and the snowpack may not provide obvious clues like cracks or whumpfing. Unfortunately, a large, unexpected avalanche on a seemingly stable slope might be the first and only clue that the slope remains unstable. An avalanche could still occur on a slope that already has several tracks on it.  Even though the number of avalanches has decreased, the consequences have not.

    The most reliable way to reduce the potential consequences of an unexpected, persistent slab avalanche is to step back from the terrain where the problem might exist. You can do this by choosing SE-S-SW aspects where this avalanche problem does not exist or sub-30-degree terrain with no other steeper connected terrain above or to the side. If you choose to go into areas where this problem could linger, reduce your exposure as much as possible.  Travel one at a time, limit time in avalanche terrain, and regroup in safe zones away from potential run-out areas. 

Avalanche Discussion

A solid refreeze last night, light to moderate winds, and some cloud cover moving through the area should help offset some of today's warming. Still, enough warming may occur to create small, wet, loose instabilities, such as roller balls, pinwheels, or small sluffs of wet, loose snow on the most sun-exposed slopes. 

Our condolences go out to the victim's family, friends, and all those affected by the tragic avalanche that occurred on Powderhouse Peak on Feb 17th.  The accident report can be found here.

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