Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Friday won’t be a particularly dangerous day, but if you’re going to find a large avalanche, it’ll be at upper elevations on the volcanoes. Be wary of leeward-facing slopes and areas with unusually deep wind-loaded snow; if in doubt, stick to sheltered, lower-angle terrain. Areas near and below the rain–snow line may see an uptick in small, wet avalanche activity as warming continues.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Limited snowfall and high snow lines have restricted wind slab development to upper elevations in the West South. Above 6,500 feet, up to a foot of new snow has fallen since Tuesday, with moderate wind to move it around.

    Observations have been limited from these areas, so you'll need to rely on what you see out there to decipher this problem. Look for signs of wind transport like wind scoured surfaces, fresh cornice growth, and sharp wind lips. Use these features to point you away from wind loaded aspects. If you notice unusually deep snow in one area, compared to its surroundings, it's likely due to wind loading. Best to avoid these deeper areas and stick to more sheltered, lower angle slopes. 

    (12/21/2025)

    A small natural wind slab avalanche on Panorama Point. E, 6700ft. This slide like occured 12/19 or 12/20. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose activity will continue on Friday, as snow levels push even higher. Most activity should be small, with so little new snow on the old snow surface, but as the snow line creeps higher, areas of deeper new snow will start to be affected. The rain-snow line may even reach the base of upper elevations.

    Heavy wet snow, on top of lighter dry snow, isn't a good setup. You'll want to know where you are on the rain-snow line to mitigate this problem. Increasing roller balls, sticky dense surface snow, and rain on your jacket are all good signs you're on the warmer side. If you find yourself in deeper new snow, and the snow starts turning heavy, move to less steep terrain, and limit your time underneath steep terrain or rocky slopes. 

    (12/29/2025)

    Rollerballs and snow shedding from rocks above Reflection Lake, Mt Rainier. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures warmed up quite a bit on Thursday, pushing the rain-snow line to near 5,500 feet in most of the West South. Since Tuesday, new snow totals have ranged widely based on elevation. At most trailheads, only a few inches fell before the rain arrived. At middle elevations, that number is closer to 6 inches. Greatest totals are at upper elevations on the volcanoes, where a foot or more  has likely accumulated.

Friday will be pretty similar to Thursday in terms of clouds and rain, but expect a little warmer temperatures. Precipitation will slow, eventually going dry by the end of the day. There could be some clearing in the afternoon, but I wouldn't expect a ton of direct sunshine. That being said, if the sun comes out in full view, southerly slopes could see an increase in wet avalanche activity.

Weak grains in the form of surface hoar and faceting snow crystals now sit between the recent storm snow and the old crusty snow; we are calling it the “January Drought Interface”. As of now, no avalanche activity has been reported on the January Drought Interface. 

The recent new snow has only marginally concealed the earthly objects that were exposed before Tuesday. If you're itching to get out on the snow, look for areas that held deeper, more consistent coverage before the new snow.

Regions covered