Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very strong and gusty winds will go to work reshaping the snowpack and forming new slabs Tuesday. As snow starts to fall, it will only add fuel to the fire. Watchout for firmer pillow-like slabs on the lee sides of ridges and even lower in the terrain on exposed mid-slope features.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind speeds start to increase Monday night and throughout Tuesday. Many exposed slopes are already wind affected, which could make it harder to blow snow around and form new slabs. However, the expected wind speeds look very, very strong. Sometimes stronger winds result in more erratic loading patterns, slabs forming well below ridgelines, and crossloading mid slope gullies. The blowing snow hitting you in the face will leave little doubt about the source of the hazard. Then watch for pockets of firmer snow that often appear smooth and fat. Steer around these steep, loaded slopes. 

    Precipitation increases later in the day, and the new snow may only accelerate the fresh wind slab development. As a result, avalanches could become larger in the afternoon. This should also correspond to a bump in temperatures, creating an up-side-down nature to the slabs. Towards the end of the day, conditions may become more dangerous, particularly at higher elevations and on Mt Rainier.

    (1/4/2026)

    Blowing snow like this can help show local wind patterns and which slopes are loaded. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

The West South zone will be a little late to the party compared to the other NWAC forecast zones. The bulk of the precipitation should hold off until late afternoon and into the evening. However, the winds show up much earlier, beginning Monday night and strengthening throughout Tuesday. Much of this avalanche forecast hinges on wind speeds and slab formation, rather than new snow. 

Paradise, on Mt Rainier, could be the outlier. Significant snow may arrive before the end of the day. As the new snow stacks up, the hazard might extend to all steep open slopes. Expect more dangerous conditions once you find more than 8 inches of fresh snow, and you notice cracking or small slides in steeper areas.

In general, we expect avalanches to fail within the storm snow, or at the new/old interface. Reports of very cold, dry snow, combined with some clearing Monday night, could lead to avalanches releasing at the interface. Even if they don’t fail in the older storm snow from the past few days, they certainly could entrain down to the Jan 3 crust. This may result in large avalanches big enough to bury you. Overall, this crust still remains relatively soft and breakable, except where it’s been exposed to the air by the wind. In these spots, it's much firmer. Below the Jan 3 layer, the snowpack is well settled and strong. We don’t expect any issues deeper in the snowpack. 

Regions covered